LaLigaMatchday 10
Valencia vs Villarreal: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS59%59%O2.556%56%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.5
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Villarreal2:1ValenciaL
- Valencia0:2VillarrealL
- Villarreal1:1ValenciaD
- Valencia1:1VillarrealD
- Villarreal1:0ValenciaL
Valencia's record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses2.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.8league 9.7over 9.5: 51%Expected corners: 9.8 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.3league 4.4under 4.5: 58%Expected yellow cards: 4.3 in this match, 4.4 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 25%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 1.6total 2.9Attack/defence1.4 : 1.5total 2.9
Valencia : VillarrealMost likely scores
Market1-112%1-29%2-17%0-18%1-0—0-27%2-2—Attack/defence1-112%1-29%2-18%0-18%1-07%0-2—2-26%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%1-21-29%1-29%2-12-17%2-18%0-10-18%0-18%1-01-0—1-07%0-20-27%0-2—2-22-2—2-26%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%79% | 79% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%75% | 75% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 71%64% | 64% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 67%66% | 66% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59%59% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56%56% | 56% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 55%61% | 61% |
| 2 – Villarreal win | 45%39% · Elo 36% | 39%· Elo 36% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44%44% | 44% |
| Both teams to score: no | 41%41% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33%34% | 34% |
| 1 – Valencia win | 29%36% · Elo 35% | 36%· Elo 35% |
| X – draw | 26%25% · Elo 29% | 25%· Elo 29% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20%21% | 21% |
Attack vs defence
Valencia attack vs Villarreal defenceattack1450defence1508−58 pts to the attack
Villarreal attack vs Valencia defenceattack1590defence1465+125 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 58%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 42%over
We expect 9.3 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.570%67%
8.558%53%
9.545%40%
10.534%31%
Each team on its own
Valenciawe expect 4.5, league average 5.1 · chance of over 5.5: 30%
Villarrealwe expect 4.8, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 69%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 69%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 31%
We expect 21.1 in this match, 23.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.538%55%
23.532%48%
24.526%43%
25.521%36%
Each team on its own
Valenciawe expect 10.4, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 36%
Villarrealwe expect 10.4, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 35%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 46%over
We expect 3.9 in this match, 3.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.574%69%
3.554%48%
4.535%34%
5.520%24%
Each team on its own
Valenciawe expect 2.1, league average 2.1 · chance of over 2.5: 34%
Villarrealwe expect 1.8, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 53%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13:13 | 8 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6:15 | 5 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Valencia vs Villarreal?
Villarreal are the favourites. Chances: Valencia win 29%, draw 26%, Villarreal win 45%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Valencia vs Villarreal?
Expected goals: 2.9 (Valencia 1.3, Villarreal 1.6). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 56%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Villarreal?
The chance that both teams score is 59%.
When is Valencia vs Villarreal?
The LaLiga match kicks off 24 October 2026, 17:30 (UK time).