AllsvenskanMatchday 25
Djurgarden vs Orgryte: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS48%O2.568%56%|exp. goals 2.2 : 0.8
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Orgryte0:0DjurgardenD
- Djurgarden2:1OrgryteW
- Orgryte0:0DjurgardenD
- Orgryte1:1DjurgardenD
- Djurgarden2:2OrgryteD
Djurgarden's record: 1 win, 4 draws, 0 losses1.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.9league 10.2under 10.5: 60%Expected corners: 9.9 in this match, 10.2 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.2league 3.3under 3.5: 60%Expected yellow cards: 3.2 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 8%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model2.7 : 0.8total 3.5Attack/defence2.2 : 0.8total 2.9
Djurgarden : OrgryteMost likely scores
Model2-011%1-08%3-010%2-19%1-1—3-18%Attack/defence2-012%1-011%3-09%2-110%1-19%3-17%
ModelAttack/defence2-02-011%2-012%1-01-08%1-011%3-03-010%3-09%2-12-19%2-110%1-11-1—1-19%3-13-18%3-17%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 92%88% | 88% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86%79% | 79% |
| 12 – no draw | 86%81% | 81% |
| 1 – Djurgarden win | 77%69% · Elo 75% | 69%· Elo 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68%56% | 56% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 54%66% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46%34% | 34% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32%44% | 44% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 23%31% | 31% |
| X – draw | 14%19% · Elo 15% | 19%· Elo 15% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14%21% | 21% |
| 2 – Orgryte win | 9%12% · Elo 10% | 12%· Elo 10% |
Attack vs defence
Djurgarden attack vs Orgryte defenceattack1613defence1389+224 pts to the attack
Orgryte attack vs Djurgarden defenceattack1399defence1626−227 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 51%close to the league averageunder 49%over
We expect 8.8 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.564%64%
8.551%53%
9.538%40%
10.527%29%
Each team on its own
Djurgardenwe expect 5.2, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 58%
Orgrytewe expect 3.5, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 27%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 55%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 45%
We expect 21.1 in this match, 21.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.552%61%
21.545%54%
22.538%47%
23.532%38%
Each team on its own
Djurgardenwe expect 10.6, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 48%
Orgrytewe expect 10.5, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 48%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 58%close to the league averageunderover 42%
We expect 2.4 in this match, 2.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.568%66%
2.542%44%
3.522%25%
4.59%13%
Each team on its own
Djurgardenwe expect 1.2, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 32%
Orgrytewe expect 1.2, league average 1.3 · chance of over 1.5: 33%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Orgryte concede 2.1 goals per game
- Djurgarden matches average only 7.2 corners (league 10.2) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Djurgarden concede only 0.6 goals per game
- Orgryte: no win in 8 matches
- Djurgarden: 8 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Orgryte: 6 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Djurgarden | 23 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 48:21 | 44 |
| 15 | Orgryte | 23 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 25:52 | 15 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Djurgarden vs Orgryte?
Djurgarden are the favourites. Chances: Djurgarden win 77%, draw 14%, Orgryte win 9%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Djurgarden vs Orgryte?
Expected goals: 3.5 (Djurgarden 2.7, Orgryte 0.8). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 68%. Most likely score: 2-0.
When is Djurgarden vs Orgryte?
The Allsvenskan match kicks off 24 October 2026, 16:30 (UK time).