New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 9hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS68%O2.570%68%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.9
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Inter Miami2:2New York Red BullsD
- New York Red Bulls1:5Inter MiamiL
- Inter Miami4:1New York Red BullsL
- Inter Miami6:2New York Red BullsL
- New York Red Bulls4:0Inter MiamiW
New York Red Bulls's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses5.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.9league 10.0under 10.5: 59%Expected corners: 9.9 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.2league 4.1under 4.5: 60%Expected yellow cards: 4.2 in this match, 4.1 on average in the league.In this league 60% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 16%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.7 : 2.0total 3.6Attack/defence1.6 : 1.9total 3.5
New York Red Bulls : Inter MiamiMost likely scores
Model1-19%1-29%2-17%2-27%1-36%0-1—Attack/defence1-110%1-29%2-18%2-27%1-35%0-16%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-19%1-110%1-21-29%1-29%2-12-17%2-18%2-22-27%2-27%1-31-36%1-35%0-10-1—0-16%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88%86% | 86% |
| 12 – no draw | 78%77% | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70%68% | 68% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 68%67% | 67% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 54%56% | 56% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 51%54% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49%46% | 46% |
| 2 – Inter Miami win | 46%44% · Elo 50% | 44%· Elo 50% |
| 1 – New York Red Bulls win | 32%33% · Elo 24% | 33%· Elo 24% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30%32% | 32% |
| X – draw | 22%23% · Elo 26% | 23%· Elo 26% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12%14% | 14% |
Attack vs defence
New York Red Bulls attack vs Inter Miami defenceattack1465defence1493−28 pts to the attack
Inter Miami attack vs New York Red Bulls defenceattack1682defence1476+206 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 9.3 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.557%55%
9.544%44%
10.533%33%
11.523%25%
Each team on its own
New York Red Bullswe expect 4.4, league average 5.1 · chance of over 5.5: 29%
Inter Miamiwe expect 4.7, league average 4.1 · chance of over 4.5: 50%
Foulsleague average
Over 21.5 · 70%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 30%over
We expect 24.9 in this match, 21.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.576%53%
21.570%46%
22.564%40%
23.557%35%
Each team on its own
New York Red Bullswe expect 13.1, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 72%
Inter Miamiwe expect 12.4, league average 10.5 · chance of over 10.5: 66%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 46%
We expect 3.5 in this match, 3.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.567%59%
3.546%39%
4.527%20%
5.514%11%
Each team on its own
New York Red Bullswe expect 1.7, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 51%
Inter Miamiwe expect 1.8, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 52%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Inter Miami score 2.3 goals per game
- Inter Miami: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Inter Miami: only 11 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 19 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- New York Red Bulls: 7 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
- Inter Miami: 7 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Inter Miami | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 68:50 | 49 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 38:52 | 36 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami?
Inter Miami are the favourites. Chances: New York Red Bulls win 32%, draw 22%, Inter Miami win 46%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami?
Expected goals: 3.6 (New York Red Bulls 1.7, Inter Miami 2.0). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 70%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami?
The MLS match kicks off 24 October 2026, 22:30 (UK time).