Orlando City vs New York City: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 20hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS61%O2.561%59%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.4
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- New York City5:0Orlando CityL
- Orlando City1:2New York CityL
- New York City2:1Orlando CityL
- Orlando City1:1New York CityD
- New York City4:2Orlando CityL
Orlando City's record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses3.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.1league 10.0under 10.5: 57%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.2league 4.1under 4.5: 60%Expected yellow cards: 4.2 in this match, 4.1 on average in the league.In this league 60% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 16%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.7 : 1.5total 3.2Attack/defence1.6 : 1.4total 3.1
Orlando City : New York CityMost likely scores
Model1-111%2-19%1-28%1-07%2-27%2-0—Attack/defence1-111%2-19%1-28%1-08%2-26%2-06%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-111%1-111%2-12-19%2-19%1-21-28%1-28%1-01-07%1-08%2-22-27%2-26%2-02-0—2-06%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83%81% | 81% |
| 12 – no draw | 76%75% | 75% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 68%67% | 67% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 61%64% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61%59% | 59% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 57%57% | 57% |
| 1 – Orlando City win | 43%43% · Elo 43% | 43%· Elo 43% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39%41% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39%36% | 36% |
| 2 – New York City win | 32%33% · Elo 29% | 33%· Elo 29% |
| X – draw | 25%25% · Elo 28% | 25%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17%19% | 19% |
Attack vs defence
Orlando City attack vs New York City defenceattack1558defence1577−19 pts to the attack
New York City attack vs Orlando City defenceattack1474defence1423+51 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 9.4 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.558%55%
9.546%44%
10.534%33%
11.524%25%
Each team on its own
Orlando Citywe expect 5.0, league average 5.1 · chance of over 5.5: 39%
New York Citywe expect 4.4, league average 4.1 · chance of over 4.5: 44%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 50%close to the league averageunderover 50%
We expect 21.8 in this match, 21.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.557%53%
21.550%46%
22.543%40%
23.536%35%
Each team on its own
Orlando Citywe expect 11.5, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 58%
New York Citywe expect 10.4, league average 10.5 · chance of over 10.5: 46%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 49%
We expect 3.6 in this match, 3.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.570%59%
3.549%39%
4.530%20%
5.516%11%
Each team on its own
Orlando Citywe expect 1.6, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 48%
New York Citywe expect 2.0, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 59%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Orlando City: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- New York City: only 7 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Orlando City: 7 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
- New York City: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Orlando City | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 51:66 | 37 |
| 10 | New York City | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 42:38 | 33 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Orlando City vs New York City?
Orlando City are the favourites. Chances: Orlando City win 43%, draw 25%, New York City win 32%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Orlando City vs New York City?
Expected goals: 3.2 (Orlando City 1.7, New York City 1.5). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 61%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Orlando City vs New York City?
The MLS match kicks off 25 October 2026, 00:30 (UK time).