Monterey Bay FC vs Las Vegas Lights: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 23hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS49%O2.547%43%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Las Vegas Lights1:0Monterey Bay FCL
- Monterey Bay FC1:1Las Vegas LightsD
- Las Vegas Lights2:0Monterey Bay FCL
- Las Vegas Lights0:0Monterey Bay FCD
- Monterey Bay FC3:1Las Vegas LightsW
Monterey Bay FC's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses1.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.5league 9.2under 9.5: 53%Expected corners: 9.5 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.2league 4.2under 4.5: 58%Expected yellow cards: 4.2 in this match, 4.2 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.3 : 1.2total 2.6Attack/defence1.3 : 1.2total 2.4
Monterey Bay FC : Las Vegas LightsMost likely scores
Model1-113%1-010%0-19%0-0—2-18%1-28%Attack/defence1-113%1-011%0-110%0-010%2-18%1-28%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-010%1-011%0-10-19%0-110%0-00-0—0-010%2-12-18%2-18%1-21-28%1-28%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 74%78% | 78% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%72% | 72% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73%69% | 69% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 65%67% | 67% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 62%62% | 62% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53%57% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47%43% | 43% |
| 1 – Monterey Bay FC win | 38%38% · Elo 34% | 38%· Elo 34% |
| 2 – Las Vegas Lights win | 35%33% · Elo 38% | 33%· Elo 38% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27%31% | 31% |
| X – draw | 27%28% · Elo 28% | 28%· Elo 28% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26%22% | 22% |
Attack vs defence
Monterey Bay FC attack vs Las Vegas Lights defenceattack1381defence1455−74 pts to the attack
Las Vegas Lights attack vs Monterey Bay FC defenceattack1427defence1417+10 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 58%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 42%
We expect 8.1 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.555%51%
8.542%34%
9.530%28%
10.520%24%
Each team on its own
Monterey Bay FCwe expect 4.2, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 41%
Las Vegas Lightswe expect 3.8, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 52%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 60%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 40%
We expect 21.4 in this match, 22.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.21.547%63%
22.540%52%
23.534%46%
24.528%41%
Each team on its own
Monterey Bay FCwe expect 10.8, league average 11.0 · chance of over 11.5: 40%
Las Vegas Lightswe expect 10.4, league average 11.6 · chance of over 11.5: 36%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 52%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 48%
We expect 2.6 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.573%70%
2.548%55%
3.527%39%
4.513%17%
Each team on its own
Monterey Bay FCwe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 35%
Las Vegas Lightswe expect 1.3, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 37%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Monterey Bay FC concede 2.0 goals per game
- Monterey Bay FC: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Las Vegas Lights: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Western Conference
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Las Vegas Lights | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 37:41 | 36 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 28 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 30:50 | 21 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Monterey Bay FC vs Las Vegas Lights?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Monterey Bay FC win 38%, draw 27%, Las Vegas Lights win 35%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Monterey Bay FC vs Las Vegas Lights?
Expected goals: 2.6 (Monterey Bay FC 1.3, Las Vegas Lights 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 47%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Monterey Bay FC vs Las Vegas Lights?
The USL Championship match kicks off 25 October 2026, 02:00 (UK time).