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ATP ParisMasters 1000Round of 64hard, indoorbest of three sets

Shapovalov vs Khachanov 1:1: result and our tips

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Denis ShapovalovATP #51Elo 1981hard 1980
1:1retired3:6 7:6(6) 4:1
Karen KhachanovATP #25Elo 2001hard 1969

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

How our tips did

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Denis Shapovalov38%
Karen Khachanov62%

Elo: D. Shapovalov 52% · K. Khachanov 48%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 D. Shapovalov22%
2:1 D. Shapovalov17%
2:1 K. Khachanov22%
2:0 K. Khachanov39%

First set

Denis Shapovalov42%
Karen Khachanov58%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 23.0 · 47%market (no margin): 50%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.568%32%60%
21.561%39%54%
22.555%45%46%
23.547%53%40%
24.542%58%38%
25.540%60%35%
26.536%64%30%

Sample: 5,911 matches

Games handicap

K. Khachanov −2.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes47%

tour average 39%

Match stats

Denis ShapovalovKaren Khachanov
8Aces2
5Double faults1
72%First serves in70%
71%First-serve points won71%
41%Second-serve points won44%
2/3Break points converted3/9
11/14Service games held10/12
63%Service points won63%
37%Return points won37%
92Total points won89

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

D. ShapovalovTourK. Khachanov
Service points won63%62%67%
Return points won38%38%36%
Service games held78%76%86%
Breaks of serve23%24%21%
Aces per service game0.600.56
Double faults per game0.420.15
Sets with a tie-break13%23%
Tie-breaks won9/1411/33
Wins in straight sets55%48%
Matches in the sample4250

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Denis Shapovalov

Karen Khachanov

Elo over the last year

Denis ShapovalovKaren Khachanov

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

D. ShapovalovK. Khachanov
Hard court19–1359%18–1555%
Clay2–529%7–654%
Grass1–325%2–250%

Head to head

D. Shapovalov 1–0 K. Khachanov

  • 07/07/21Winner: D. Shapovalov6:4 3:6 5:7 6:1 6:4

Upcoming matches

See also