BundesligaMatchday 10
Sturm Graz vs Ried: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 8hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS61%59%O2.561%62%|exp. goals 2.1 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Sturm Graz1:0RiedW
- Ried1:3Sturm GrazW
- Sturm Graz2:1RiedW
- Ried1:1Sturm GrazD
- Ried2:2Sturm GrazD
Sturm Graz's record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.1league 9.6over 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 9.6 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.9over 3.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.9 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 22%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.9 : 1.2total 3.1Attack/defence2.1 : 1.1total 3.2
Sturm Graz : RiedMost likely scores
Market1-111%2-110%2-08%1-08%3-1—3-0—1-26%Attack/defence1-110%2-110%2-09%1-08%3-17%3-06%1-2—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-110%2-12-110%2-110%2-02-08%2-09%1-01-08%1-08%3-13-1—3-17%3-03-0—3-06%1-21-26%1-2—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83%83% | 83% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 77%82% | 82% |
| 12 – no draw | 77%79% | 79% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 62%60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61%62% | 62% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61%59% | 59% |
| 1 – Sturm Graz win | 53%61% · Elo 62% | 61%· Elo 62% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 48%39% | 39% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39%38% | 38% |
| Both teams to score: no | 39%41% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38%40% | 40% |
| X – draw | 24%21% · Elo 22% | 21%· Elo 22% |
| 2 – Ried win | 24%18% · Elo 16% | 18%· Elo 16% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17%17% | 17% |
Attack vs defence
Sturm Graz attack vs Ried defenceattack1600defence1424+176 pts to the attack
Ried attack vs Sturm Graz defenceattack1484defence1565−81 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 49%over
We expect 8.8 in this match, 8.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.564%53%
8.551%36%
9.539%23%
10.528%19%
Each team on its own
Sturm Grazwe expect 5.5, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 62%
Riedwe expect 3.7, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 50%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 68%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 32%
We expect 18.5 in this match, 20.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.540%54%
20.533%50%
21.526%43%
22.520%37%
Each team on its own
Sturm Grazwe expect 8.8, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 39%
Riedwe expect 9.4, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 34%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 63%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 37%
We expect 3.1 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.559%60%
3.537%46%
4.520%25%
5.510%17%
Each team on its own
Sturm Grazwe expect 1.7, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 49%
Riedwe expect 1.4, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 39%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Sturm Graz matches average 12.1 corners (league 9.6) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Sturm Graz: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Ried: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10:9 | 14 |
| 6 | Ried | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13:13 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Ried?
Sturm Graz are the favourites. Chances: Sturm Graz win 53%, draw 24%, Ried win 24%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Sturm Graz vs Ried?
Expected goals: 3.1 (Sturm Graz 1.9, Ried 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 61%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Ried?
The chance that both teams score is 61%.
When is Sturm Graz vs Ried?
The Bundesliga match kicks off 25 October 2026, 13:30 (UK time).