Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 32
Coritiba vs Gremio: prediction, tips and stats
·
Our tips
Tip in 12d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS52%56%O2.547%53%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Gremio1:0CoritibaL
- Coritiba1:2GremioL
- Gremio5:1CoritibaL
- Coritiba1:1GremioD
- Gremio2:1CoritibaL
Coritiba's record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.5league 10.4under 10.5: 52%Expected corners: 10.5 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.8league 4.7over 4.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 4.8 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 22%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.5 : 1.1total 2.6Attack/defence1.6 : 1.2total 2.8
Coritiba : GremioMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-010%2-19%0-09%2-08%1-2—0-1—Attack/defence1-112%1-09%2-19%0-0—2-07%1-27%0-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-112%1-01-010%1-09%2-12-19%2-19%0-00-09%0-0—2-02-08%2-07%1-21-2—1-27%0-10-1—0-17%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 74%70% | 70% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73%77% | 77% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 72%70% | 70% |
| 12 – no draw | 72%74% | 74% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 56%56% | 56% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53%47% | 47% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52%56% | 56% |
| Both teams to score: no | 48%44% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47%53% | 53% |
| 1 – Coritiba win | 44%44% · Elo 46% | 44%· Elo 46% |
| X – draw | 28%26% · Elo 28% | 26%· Elo 28% |
| 2 – Gremio win | 28%30% · Elo 27% | 30%· Elo 27% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27%23% | 23% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26%30% | 30% |
Attack vs defence
Coritiba attack vs Gremio defenceattack1420defence1446−26 pts to the attack
Gremio attack vs Coritiba defenceattack1440defence1390+50 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 9.4 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.559%55%
9.546%43%
10.535%32%
11.525%26%
Each team on its own
Coritibawe expect 5.5, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 46%
Gremiowe expect 4.0, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 56%
Foulsleague average
Under 24.5 · 54%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 46%
We expect 24.2 in this match, 25.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.23.553%59%
24.546%51%
25.540%45%
26.534%40%
Each team on its own
Coritibawe expect 12.0, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 43%
Gremiowe expect 12.1, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 43%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 56%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 44%
We expect 2.4 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.570%78%
2.544%55%
3.523%34%
4.511%20%
Each team on its own
Coritibawe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 33%
Gremiowe expect 1.2, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 33%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Coritiba concede 2.1 goals per game
- Coritiba: newly promoted
- Coritiba: 9 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Gremio: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 38:48 | 39 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 32:40 | 31 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Coritiba vs Gremio?
Coritiba are the favourites. Chances: Coritiba win 44%, draw 28%, Gremio win 28%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Coritiba vs Gremio?
Expected goals: 2.6 (Coritiba 1.5, Gremio 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 47%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Gremio?
The chance that both teams score is 52%.
When is Coritiba vs Gremio?
The Brasileiro Serie A match kicks off 26 October 2026, 22:30 (UK time).