Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 31
Gremio vs Cruzeiro: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%55%O2.552%51%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Cruzeiro2:0GremioL
- Gremio0:1CruzeiroL
- Cruzeiro4:1GremioL
- Cruzeiro1:1GremioD
- Gremio0:2CruzeiroL
Gremio's record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.5league 10.4under 10.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.5 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.7league 4.7over 4.5: 50%Expected yellow cards: 4.7 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 22%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 1.5total 2.8Attack/defence1.4 : 1.3total 2.7
Gremio : CruzeiroMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-29%0-19%1-0—2-18%0-07%Attack/defence1-113%1-28%0-19%1-09%2-18%0-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-21-29%1-28%0-10-19%0-19%1-01-0—1-09%2-12-18%2-18%0-00-07%0-07%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77%75% | 75% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%73% | 73% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70%71% | 71% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 69%63% | 63% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 58%64% | 64% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57%55% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52%51% | 51% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48%50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score: no | 43%45% | 45% |
| 2 – Cruzeiro win | 42%36% · Elo 39% | 36%· Elo 39% |
| 1 – Gremio win | 31%37% · Elo 32% | 37%· Elo 32% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30%29% | 29% |
| X – draw | 27%27% · Elo 29% | 27%· Elo 29% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23%25% | 25% |
Attack vs defence
Gremio attack vs Cruzeiro defenceattack1440defence1539−99 pts to the attack
Cruzeiro attack vs Gremio defenceattack1541defence1446+95 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 61%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 39%over
We expect 10.7 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.572%55%
9.561%43%
10.549%32%
11.538%26%
Each team on its own
Gremiowe expect 5.4, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 45%
Cruzeirowe expect 5.8, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 80%
Foulsleague average
Over 24.5 · 54%close to the league averageunder 46%over
We expect 25.5 in this match, 25.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.23.561%59%
24.554%51%
25.548%45%
26.541%40%
Each team on its own
Gremiowe expect 12.7, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 50%
Cruzeirowe expect 12.8, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 51%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 54%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 46%
We expect 2.5 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.571%78%
2.546%55%
3.525%34%
4.511%20%
Each team on its own
Gremiowe expect 1.4, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 40%
Cruzeirowe expect 1.1, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 29%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Cruzeiro matches average only 3.7 cards (league 4.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Cruzeiro: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Cruzeiro: 21 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 14 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Gremio: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Cruzeiro: 6 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 46:44 | 48 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 32:40 | 31 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Gremio vs Cruzeiro?
Cruzeiro are the favourites. Chances: Gremio win 31%, draw 27%, Cruzeiro win 42%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Gremio vs Cruzeiro?
Expected goals: 2.8 (Gremio 1.3, Cruzeiro 1.5). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 52%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Cruzeiro?
The chance that both teams score is 57%.
When is Gremio vs Cruzeiro?
The Brasileiro Serie A match kicks off 18 October 2026, 20:00 (UK time).