ChampionshipMatchday 12
Cardiff vs Birmingham: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS54%O2.549%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Birmingham0:1CardiffW
- Cardiff0:1BirminghamL
- Birmingham0:2CardiffW
- Cardiff1:0BirminghamW
- Cardiff1:1BirminghamD
Cardiff's record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss1.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.7league 10.4under 10.5: 50%Expected corners: 10.7 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.8over 3.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.2 : 1.3total 2.5Attack/defence1.4 : 1.2total 2.6
Cardiff : BirminghamMost likely scores
Model1-113%0-110%1-09%2-1—0-09%1-28%Attack/defence1-113%0-18%1-010%2-19%0-08%1-28%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%0-10-110%0-18%1-01-09%1-010%2-12-1—2-19%0-00-09%0-08%1-21-28%1-28%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 12 – no draw | 72%73% | 73% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 67%59% | 59% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 62%68% | 68% |
| 2 – Birmingham win | 39%32% · Elo 44% | 32%· Elo 44% |
| 1 – Cardiff win | 34%41% · Elo 29% | 41%· Elo 29% |
| X – draw | 28%27% · Elo 27% | 27%· Elo 27% |
Attack vs defence
Cardiff attack vs Birmingham defenceattack1522defence1541−19 pts to the attack
Birmingham attack vs Cardiff defenceattack1505defence1482+23 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 49%
We expect 8.6 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.562%56%
8.549%40%
9.536%31%
10.526%20%
Each team on its own
Cardiffwe expect 4.9, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 53%
Birminghamwe expect 4.0, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 56%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 57%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 43%over
We expect 21.8 in this match, 20.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.565%56%
20.557%46%
21.550%37%
22.543%33%
Each team on its own
Cardiffwe expect 9.3, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 45%
Birminghamwe expect 12.9, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 71%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 63%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 38%over
We expect 4.3 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.580%66%
3.563%50%
4.544%32%
5.527%19%
Each team on its own
Cardiffwe expect 1.9, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 56%
Birminghamwe expect 2.5, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 70%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Cardiff: only 7 pts in 9 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Cardiff: newly promoted
- Cardiff: 7 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
- Birmingham: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17:11 | 17 |
| 18 | Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16:15 | 10 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Cardiff vs Birmingham?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Cardiff win 34%, draw 28%, Birmingham win 39%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Cardiff vs Birmingham?
Expected goals: 2.5 (Cardiff 1.2, Birmingham 1.3). Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Cardiff vs Birmingham?
The Championship match kicks off 24 October 2026, 15:00 (UK time).