ChampionshipMatchday 11
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 7hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS64%56%O2.569%55%|exp. goals 1.8 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Middlesbrough1:1CardiffD
- Cardiff0:2MiddlesbroughW
- Cardiff1:4MiddlesbroughW
- Middlesbrough2:0CardiffW
- Cardiff1:3MiddlesbroughW
Middlesbrough's record: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.7league 10.4under 10.5: 50%Expected corners: 10.7 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 3.8over 3.5: 50%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.3 : 1.2total 3.5Attack/defence1.8 : 1.1total 2.9
Middlesbrough : CardiffMost likely scores
Market1-19%2-110%1-0—2-08%3-17%3-06%1-2—Attack/defence1-111%2-110%1-010%2-09%3-16%3-0—1-26%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-19%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%1-01-0—1-010%2-02-08%2-09%3-13-17%3-16%3-03-06%3-0—1-21-2—1-26%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88%79% | 79% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 82%77% | 77% |
| 12 – no draw | 80%76% | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69%55% | 55% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64%56% | 56% |
| 1 – Middlesbrough win | 62%54% · Elo 63% | 54%· Elo 63% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 52%67% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48%33% | 33% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 38%47% | 47% |
| Both teams to score: no | 36%44% | 44% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31%45% | 45% |
| X – draw | 20%24% · Elo 21% | 24%· Elo 21% |
| 2 – Cardiff win | 18%23% · Elo 16% | 23%· Elo 16% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12%21% | 21% |
Attack vs defence
Middlesbrough attack vs Cardiff defenceattack1592defence1482+110 pts to the attack
Cardiff attack vs Middlesbrough defenceattack1522defence1558−36 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 55%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 45%over
We expect 9.1 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.568%56%
8.555%40%
9.543%31%
10.531%20%
Each team on its own
Middlesbroughwe expect 5.7, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 65%
Cardiffwe expect 4.1, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 57%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 50%close to the league averageunder 50%over
We expect 20.8 in this match, 20.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.557%56%
20.550%46%
21.543%37%
22.536%33%
Each team on its own
Middlesbroughwe expect 10.6, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 60%
Cardiffwe expect 10.2, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 44%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 65%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 35%over
We expect 4.5 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.582%66%
3.565%50%
4.547%32%
5.530%19%
Each team on its own
Middlesbroughwe expect 2.9, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 76%
Cardiffwe expect 1.8, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 52%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Middlesbrough: unbeaten in 8 matches
- Cardiff: only 7 pts in 9 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Cardiff: newly promoted
- Middlesbrough: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Cardiff: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 20:14 | 21 |
| 18 | Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16:15 | 10 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Middlesbrough vs Cardiff?
Middlesbrough are the favourites. Chances: Middlesbrough win 62%, draw 20%, Cardiff win 18%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Middlesbrough vs Cardiff?
Expected goals: 3.5 (Middlesbrough 2.3, Cardiff 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 69%. Most likely score: 2-1.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Cardiff?
The chance that both teams score is 64%.
When is Middlesbrough vs Cardiff?
The Championship match kicks off 17 October 2026, 12:30 (UK time).