ChampionshipMatchday 12
Lincoln vs Burnley: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 8hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS54%O2.550%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.2
H2Hhome side's goals firstnever met
Cornersleague corners10.4league 10.4under 10.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.4 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.8over 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.0 : 1.2total 2.2Attack/defence1.5 : 1.2total 2.7
Lincoln : BurnleyMost likely scores
Model1-114%0-113%0-012%1-010%2-1—0-29%2-0—Attack/defence1-113%0-18%0-07%1-010%2-19%0-2—2-08%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-114%1-113%0-10-113%0-18%0-00-012%0-07%1-01-010%1-010%2-12-1—2-19%0-20-29%0-2—2-02-0—2-08%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 72%55% | 55% |
| 12 – no draw | 70%74% | 74% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 58%71% | 71% |
| 2 – Burnley win | 42%29% · Elo 51% | 29%· Elo 51% |
| X – draw | 30%26% · Elo 26% | 26%· Elo 26% |
| 1 – Lincoln win | 28%45% · Elo 23% | 45%· Elo 23% |
Attack vs defence
Lincoln attack vs Burnley defenceattack1482defence1469+13 pts to the attack
Burnley attack vs Lincoln defenceattack1512defence1510+2 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 8.2 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.557%56%
8.543%40%
9.531%31%
10.521%20%
Each team on its own
Lincolnwe expect 4.2, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 40%
Burnleywe expect 4.0, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 56%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 20.5 in this match, 20.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.555%56%
20.548%46%
21.541%37%
22.534%33%
Each team on its own
Lincolnwe expect 10.3, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 56%
Burnleywe expect 10.2, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 44%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 56%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 44%over
We expect 4.0 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.575%66%
3.556%50%
4.537%32%
5.522%19%
Each team on its own
Lincolnwe expect 2.7, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 73%
Burnleywe expect 1.3, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 38%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Lincoln: newly promoted
- Burnley: newly promoted
- Lincoln: 7 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
- Burnley: 8 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7:11 | 11 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 15:19 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Lincoln vs Burnley?
Burnley are the favourites. Chances: Lincoln win 28%, draw 30%, Burnley win 42%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Lincoln vs Burnley?
Expected goals: 2.2 (Lincoln 1.0, Burnley 1.2). Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Lincoln vs Burnley?
The Championship match kicks off 24 October 2026, 15:00 (UK time).