ChampionshipMatchday 10
Norwich vs Southampton: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 5h 21mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS65%62%O2.563%59%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.5
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Southampton1:0NorwichL
- Norwich2:1SouthamptonW
- Norwich1:1SouthamptonD
- Southampton4:4NorwichD
- Southampton2:0NorwichL
Norwich's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses3.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.1league 10.4under 10.5: 57%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.9league 3.8over 3.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 3.9 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.7 : 1.6total 3.3Attack/defence1.6 : 1.5total 3.1
Norwich : SouthamptonMost likely scores
Market1-111%2-19%1-28%2-27%1-06%0-1—Attack/defence1-111%2-19%1-28%2-26%1-07%0-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-111%2-12-19%2-19%1-21-28%1-28%2-22-27%2-26%1-01-06%1-07%0-10-1—0-17%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84%81% | 81% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%75% | 75% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65%62% | 62% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 64%64% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63%59% | 59% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 61%61% | 61% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 59%63% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41%37% | 37% |
| 1 – Norwich win | 39%39% · Elo 28% | 39%· Elo 28% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37%41% | 41% |
| 2 – Southampton win | 36%36% · Elo 44% | 36%· Elo 44% |
| Both teams to score: no | 35%38% | 38% |
| X – draw | 25%25% · Elo 27% | 25%· Elo 27% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16%19% | 19% |
Attack vs defence
Norwich attack vs Southampton defenceattack1564defence1529+35 pts to the attack
Southampton attack vs Norwich defenceattack1612defence1476+136 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 55%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 45%
We expect 8.3 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.558%56%
8.545%40%
9.533%31%
10.523%20%
Each team on its own
Norwichwe expect 4.5, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 46%
Southamptonwe expect 4.0, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 55%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 49%over
We expect 20.9 in this match, 20.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.558%56%
20.551%46%
21.544%37%
22.537%33%
Each team on its own
Norwichwe expect 10.7, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 60%
Southamptonwe expect 10.3, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 45%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 71%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 30%over
We expect 4.8 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.586%66%
3.571%50%
4.553%32%
5.536%19%
Each team on its own
Norwichwe expect 1.9, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 57%
Southamptonwe expect 3.0, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 78%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Mohamed ToureNorwich3 matches with a goal3 goalsWent on 27%Season 57%
- Oscar SchwartauNorwich3 matches with a goal or assist1 goal, 2 assistsWent on 33%Season 43%
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Norwich concede 2.1 goals per game
- Southampton matches average 5.2 cards (league 3.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Norwich: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Norwich: only 9 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 15 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Southampton played 3 days ago
- Norwich: 4 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20:10 | 13 |
| 19 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 17:19 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Norwich vs Southampton?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Norwich win 39%, draw 25%, Southampton win 36%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Norwich vs Southampton?
Expected goals: 3.3 (Norwich 1.7, Southampton 1.6). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 63%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Norwich vs Southampton?
The chance that both teams score is 65%.
When is Norwich vs Southampton?
The Championship match kicks off 14 October 2026, 19:45 (UK time).