ChampionshipMatchday 12
QPR vs Swansea: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 8hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS53%O2.548%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- QPR1:2SwanseaL
- Swansea0:1QPRW
- QPR1:2SwanseaL
- Swansea3:0QPRL
- Swansea0:1QPRW
QPR's record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.1league 10.4under 10.5: 57%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 3.8under 3.5: 50%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.3 : 1.2total 2.5Attack/defence1.4 : 1.2total 2.6
QPR : SwanseaMost likely scores
Model1-113%1-010%0-19%2-18%0-09%1-2—Attack/defence1-113%1-010%0-19%2-19%0-08%1-27%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-010%1-010%0-10-19%0-19%2-12-18%2-19%0-00-09%0-08%1-21-2—1-27%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 12 – no draw | 72%73% | 73% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 65%69% | 69% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 63%59% | 59% |
| 1 – QPR win | 37%42% · Elo 33% | 42%· Elo 33% |
| 2 – Swansea win | 35%32% · Elo 39% | 32%· Elo 39% |
| X – draw | 28%27% · Elo 28% | 27%· Elo 28% |
Attack vs defence
QPR attack vs Swansea defenceattack1505defence1531−26 pts to the attack
Swansea attack vs QPR defenceattack1495defence1487+8 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 8.2 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.557%56%
8.544%40%
9.532%31%
10.522%20%
Each team on its own
QPRwe expect 4.2, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 42%
Swanseawe expect 4.0, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 56%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 64%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 36%
We expect 18.9 in this match, 20.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.543%56%
20.536%46%
21.529%37%
22.523%33%
Each team on its own
QPRwe expect 9.2, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 44%
Swanseawe expect 9.6, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 37%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 59%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 41%over
We expect 4.1 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.577%66%
3.559%50%
4.540%32%
5.524%19%
Each team on its own
QPRwe expect 2.5, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 69%
Swanseawe expect 1.7, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 51%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Swansea: 4 wins in a row
- Swansea: 20 pts in 9 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- QPR: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Swansea: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16:7 | 23 |
| 8 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11:8 | 14 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win QPR vs Swansea?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: QPR win 37%, draw 28%, Swansea win 35%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in QPR vs Swansea?
Expected goals: 2.5 (QPR 1.3, Swansea 1.2). Most likely score: 1-1.
When is QPR vs Swansea?
The Championship match kicks off 24 October 2026, 15:00 (UK time).