ChampionshipMatchday 11
Swansea vs West Ham: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS61%55%O2.558%51%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Swansea4:1West HamW
- West Ham1:0SwanseaL
- West Ham1:0SwanseaL
- Swansea1:4West HamL
- West Ham1:4SwanseaW
Swansea's record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses3.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.2league 10.4under 10.5: 55%Expected corners: 10.2 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 3.8over 3.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.4 : 1.6total 3.0Attack/defence1.5 : 1.3total 2.7
Swansea : West HamMost likely scores
Market1-112%1-0—1-29%2-18%0-17%2-0—2-26%Attack/defence1-113%1-09%1-28%2-19%0-18%2-07%2-2—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-113%1-01-0—1-09%1-21-29%1-28%2-12-18%2-19%0-10-17%0-18%2-02-0—2-07%2-22-26%2-2—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81%75% | 75% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%74% | 74% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 65%58% | 58% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 65%71% | 71% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61%55% | 55% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 60%68% | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58%51% | 51% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42%49% | 49% |
| 2 – West Ham win | 40%32% · Elo 62% | 32%· Elo 62% |
| Both teams to score: no | 39%45% | 45% |
| 1 – Swansea win | 35%42% · Elo 16% | 42%· Elo 16% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35%29% | 29% |
| X – draw | 25%26% · Elo 22% | 26%· Elo 22% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19%25% | 25% |
Attack vs defence
Swansea attack vs West Ham defenceattack1495defence1498−3 pts to the attack
West Ham attack vs Swansea defenceattack1564defence1531+33 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 8.2 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.557%56%
8.544%40%
9.531%31%
10.521%20%
Each team on its own
Swanseawe expect 4.7, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 50%
West Hamwe expect 3.6, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 48%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 19.6 in this match, 20.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.548%56%
20.541%46%
21.534%37%
22.527%33%
Each team on its own
Swanseawe expect 9.1, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 43%
West Hamwe expect 10.3, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 46%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 57%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 43%over
We expect 4.0 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.576%66%
3.557%50%
4.538%32%
5.522%19%
Each team on its own
Swanseawe expect 1.6, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 46%
West Hamwe expect 2.5, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 69%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Swansea: 4 wins in a row
- Swansea: 20 pts in 9 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- West Ham: newly promoted
- West Ham played 3 days ago
- Swansea: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16:7 | 23 |
| 5 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 23:12 | 16 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Swansea vs West Ham?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Swansea win 35%, draw 25%, West Ham win 40%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Swansea vs West Ham?
Expected goals: 3.0 (Swansea 1.4, West Ham 1.6). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 58%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs West Ham?
The chance that both teams score is 61%.
When is Swansea vs West Ham?
The Championship match kicks off 17 October 2026, 15:00 (UK time).