ChampionshipMatchday 12
West Ham vs Southampton: prediction, tips and stats
·
Our tips
Tip in 10d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS61%O2.558%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.4
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- West Ham1:1SouthamptonD
- Southampton0:1West HamW
- West Ham1:0SouthamptonW
- Southampton1:1West HamD
- West Ham2:3SouthamptonL
West Ham's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.4league 10.4under 10.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.4 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.9league 3.8over 3.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 3.9 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model2.0 : 1.6total 3.6Attack/defence1.6 : 1.4total 3.0
West Ham : SouthamptonMost likely scores
Model1-19%2-19%1-27%1-0—2-27%0-1—3-16%Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-28%1-07%2-26%0-17%3-1—
ModelAttack/defence1-11-19%1-112%2-12-19%2-19%1-21-27%1-28%1-01-0—1-07%2-22-27%2-26%0-10-1—0-17%3-13-16%3-1—
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 12 – no draw | 77%75% | 75% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 68%65% | 65% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 55%60% | 60% |
| 1 – West Ham win | 45%40% · Elo 62% | 40%· Elo 62% |
| 2 – Southampton win | 32%35% · Elo 16% | 35%· Elo 16% |
| X – draw | 23%25% · Elo 22% | 25%· Elo 22% |
Attack vs defence
West Ham attack vs Southampton defenceattack1564defence1529+35 pts to the attack
Southampton attack vs West Ham defenceattack1612defence1498+114 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 8.2 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.556%56%
8.543%40%
9.531%31%
10.521%20%
Each team on its own
West Hamwe expect 4.7, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 49%
Southamptonwe expect 3.6, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 47%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 58%close to the league averageunderover 42%
We expect 19.7 in this match, 20.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.549%56%
20.542%46%
21.535%37%
22.528%33%
Each team on its own
West Hamwe expect 9.7, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 50%
Southamptonwe expect 9.8, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 40%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 59%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 41%
We expect 3.3 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.563%66%
3.541%50%
4.524%32%
5.512%19%
Each team on its own
West Hamwe expect 1.7, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 49%
Southamptonwe expect 1.6, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 45%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Southampton matches average 5.2 cards (league 3.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- West Ham: newly promoted
- West Ham: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Southampton: 7 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 23:12 | 16 |
| 13 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20:10 | 13 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win West Ham vs Southampton?
West Ham are the favourites. Chances: West Ham win 45%, draw 23%, Southampton win 32%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in West Ham vs Southampton?
Expected goals: 3.6 (West Ham 2.0, Southampton 1.6). Most likely score: 1-1.
When is West Ham vs Southampton?
The Championship match kicks off 24 October 2026, 15:00 (UK time).