ChampionshipMatchday 11
Southampton vs Bolton: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 8hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS58%59%O2.567%59%|exp. goals 1.9 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Bolton1:1SouthamptonD
- Southampton1:2BoltonL
- Southampton1:2BoltonL
- Bolton0:0SouthamptonD
- Southampton0:0BoltonD
Southampton's record: 0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses1.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.4league 10.4under 10.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.4 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.8over 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.4 : 1.0total 3.4Attack/defence1.9 : 1.2total 3.1
Southampton : BoltonMost likely scores
Market1-18%2-110%2-010%1-0—3-18%3-08%1-2—Attack/defence1-111%2-110%2-09%1-09%3-16%3-0—1-26%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-18%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%2-02-010%2-09%1-01-0—1-09%3-13-18%3-16%3-03-08%3-0—1-21-2—1-26%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 86%78% | 78% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86%81% | 81% |
| 12 – no draw | 82%77% | 77% |
| 1 – Southampton win | 68%55% · Elo 72% | 55%· Elo 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67%59% | 59% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58%59% | 59% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 55%63% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45%37% | 37% |
| Both teams to score: no | 42%42% | 42% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33%41% | 41% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 32%45% | 45% |
| X – draw | 18%23% · Elo 17% | 23%· Elo 17% |
| 2 – Bolton win | 14%22% · Elo 11% | 22%· Elo 11% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14%19% | 19% |
Attack vs defence
Southampton attack vs Bolton defenceattack1612defence1469+143 pts to the attack
Bolton attack vs Southampton defenceattack1516defence1529−13 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 46%
We expect 8.4 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.559%56%
8.546%40%
9.534%31%
10.523%20%
Each team on its own
Southamptonwe expect 4.8, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 52%
Boltonwe expect 3.8, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 51%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 19.6 in this match, 20.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.548%56%
20.541%46%
21.534%37%
22.528%33%
Each team on its own
Southamptonwe expect 8.7, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 38%
Boltonwe expect 10.8, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 51%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 74%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 26%over
We expect 5.1 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.587%66%
3.574%50%
4.557%32%
5.540%19%
Each team on its own
Southamptonwe expect 3.8, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 88%
Boltonwe expect 1.5, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 43%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Southampton matches average 5.2 cards (league 3.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Bolton: newly promoted
- Southampton played 3 days ago
- Bolton: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20:10 | 13 |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 15:18 | 13 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Southampton vs Bolton?
Southampton are the favourites. Chances: Southampton win 68%, draw 18%, Bolton win 14%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Southampton vs Bolton?
Expected goals: 3.4 (Southampton 2.4, Bolton 1.0). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 67%. Most likely score: 2-1.
Will both teams score in Southampton vs Bolton?
The chance that both teams score is 58%.
When is Southampton vs Bolton?
The Championship match kicks off 17 October 2026, 15:00 (UK time).