League OneMatchday 13
Burton vs Leyton Orient: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 9hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS53%O2.546%48%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Leyton Orient2:2BurtonD
- Burton0:4Leyton OrientL
- Burton2:1Leyton OrientW
- Leyton Orient0:0BurtonD
- Leyton Orient1:2BurtonW
Burton's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.2league 10.5under 10.5: 56%Expected corners: 10.2 in this match, 10.5 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.7over 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.2 : 1.3total 2.5Attack/defence1.4 : 1.3total 2.6
Burton : Leyton OrientMost likely scores
Model1-113%0-110%1-010%2-18%1-28%0-0—Attack/defence1-113%0-19%1-010%2-19%1-28%0-08%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%0-10-110%0-19%1-01-010%1-010%2-12-18%2-19%1-21-28%1-28%0-00-0—0-08%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 75%73% | 73% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%73% | 73% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72%73% | 73% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 64%61% | 61% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 62%66% | 66% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54%52% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46%48% | 48% |
| 2 – Leyton Orient win | 38%34% · Elo 34% | 34%· Elo 34% |
| 1 – Burton win | 36%39% · Elo 39% | 39%· Elo 39% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28%27% | 27% |
| X – draw | 27%27% · Elo 28% | 27%· Elo 28% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25%27% | 27% |
Attack vs defence
Burton attack vs Leyton Orient defenceattack1441defence1495−54 pts to the attack
Leyton Orient attack vs Burton defenceattack1497defence1487+10 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 68%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 32%
We expect 6.5 in this match, 7.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.547%61%
7.533%43%
8.521%30%
9.513%17%
Each team on its own
Burtonwe expect 3.2, league average 3.7 · chance of over 3.5: 39%
Leyton Orientwe expect 2.9, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 32%
Foulsleague average
Over 18.5 · 51%close to the league averageunder 49%over
We expect 18.9 in this match, 18.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.17.559%56%
18.551%53%
19.543%53%
20.536%51%
Each team on its own
Burtonwe expect 8.5, league average 8.9 · chance of over 8.5: 48%
Leyton Orientwe expect 10.5, league average 9.8 · chance of over 9.5: 58%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 3.3 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.563%60%
3.541%43%
4.524%23%
5.512%14%
Each team on its own
Burtonwe expect 1.6, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 47%
Leyton Orientwe expect 1.7, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 49%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Burton concede a lot late on: 10 of 25 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Leyton Orient played 3 days ago
- Burton: 4 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Burton | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14:16 | 12 |
| 12 | Leyton Orient | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13:11 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Burton vs Leyton Orient?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Burton win 36%, draw 27%, Leyton Orient win 38%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Burton vs Leyton Orient?
Expected goals: 2.5 (Burton 1.2, Leyton Orient 1.3). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 46%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Burton vs Leyton Orient?
The League One match kicks off 24 October 2026, 15:00 (UK time).