League TwoMatchday 13
Gillingham vs Grimsby: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS50%O2.546%45%|exp. goals 1.1 : 1.4
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Gillingham1:4GrimsbyL
- Grimsby1:0GillinghamL
- Grimsby1:1GillinghamD
- Gillingham0:1GrimsbyL
- Gillingham1:1GrimsbyD
Gillingham's record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.0league 9.9over 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.0 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.9league 3.7over 3.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 3.9 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.2 : 1.3total 2.5Attack/defence1.1 : 1.4total 2.5
Gillingham : GrimsbyMost likely scores
Model1-113%0-111%1-010%0-08%1-28%0-2—Attack/defence1-113%0-111%1-09%0-09%1-29%0-28%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%0-10-111%0-111%1-01-010%1-09%0-00-08%0-09%1-21-28%1-29%0-20-2—0-28%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 75%76% | 76% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%72% | 72% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72%71% | 71% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 66%70% | 70% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 61%58% | 58% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54%55% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46%45% | 45% |
| 2 – Grimsby win | 39%42% · Elo 41% | 42%· Elo 41% |
| 1 – Gillingham win | 34%30% · Elo 32% | 30%· Elo 32% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28%29% | 29% |
| X – draw | 27%28% · Elo 28% | 28%· Elo 28% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25%24% | 24% |
Attack vs defence
Gillingham attack vs Grimsby defenceattack1450defence1541−91 pts to the attack
Grimsby attack vs Gillingham defenceattack1563defence1452+111 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 7.6 in this match, 7.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.562%61%
7.548%45%
8.535%27%
9.524%17%
Each team on its own
Gillinghamwe expect 4.1, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 39%
Grimsbywe expect 3.5, league average 3.1 · chance of over 3.5: 46%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 56%close to the league averageunder 44%over
We expect 21.6 in this match, 20.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.563%61%
20.556%57%
21.548%51%
22.541%45%
Each team on its own
Gillinghamwe expect 11.0, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 52%
Grimsbywe expect 10.7, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 49%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 63%close to the league averageunderover 37%
We expect 3.1 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.559%58%
3.537%41%
4.520%28%
5.510%11%
Each team on its own
Gillinghamwe expect 1.4, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 40%
Grimsbywe expect 1.7, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 49%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Grimsby matches average 12.3 corners (league 9.9) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Gillingham: 4 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
- Grimsby: 4 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Gillingham | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 15:10 | 16 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13:11 | 13 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Gillingham vs Grimsby?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Gillingham win 34%, draw 27%, Grimsby win 39%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Gillingham vs Grimsby?
Expected goals: 2.5 (Gillingham 1.2, Grimsby 1.3). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 46%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Gillingham vs Grimsby?
The League Two match kicks off 24 October 2026, 15:00 (UK time).