Ligue 1Matchday 8
Brest vs Nice: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 9d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS60%56%O2.557%54%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Nice2:2BrestD
- Brest4:1NiceW
- Nice6:0BrestL
- Brest0:1NiceL
- Brest0:0NiceD
Brest's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses3.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.6under 9.5: 51%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.3league 3.6under 3.5: 58%Expected yellow cards: 3.3 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.6 : 1.3total 2.9Attack/defence1.6 : 1.2total 2.8
Brest : NiceMost likely scores
Market1-112%2-19%1-07%1-28%2-07%0-1—Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-09%1-27%2-08%0-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%2-12-19%2-19%1-01-07%1-09%1-21-28%1-27%2-02-07%2-08%0-10-1—0-17%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81%77% | 77% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%75% | 75% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 69%72% | 72% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 65%69% | 69% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60%56% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57%54% | 54% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 56%53% | 53% |
| 1 – Brest win | 43%47% · Elo 48% | 47%· Elo 48% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43%46% | 46% |
| Both teams to score: no | 40%44% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35%31% | 31% |
| 2 – Nice win | 30%28% · Elo 26% | 28%· Elo 26% |
| X – draw | 26%25% · Elo 27% | 25%· Elo 27% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19%23% | 23% |
Attack vs defence
Brest attack vs Nice defenceattack1517defence1479+38 pts to the attack
Nice attack vs Brest defenceattack1452defence1460−8 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 51%close to the league averageunderover 49%
We expect 8.6 in this match, 8.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.562%60%
8.549%49%
9.536%38%
10.526%28%
Each team on its own
Brestwe expect 4.8, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 51%
Nicewe expect 3.8, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 52%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 63%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 37%
We expect 20.1 in this match, 21.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.545%53%
21.537%47%
22.531%41%
23.525%36%
Each team on its own
Brestwe expect 10.2, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 44%
Nicewe expect 9.7, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 38%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 49%
We expect 3.6 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.570%63%
3.549%43%
4.530%26%
5.516%14%
Each team on its own
Brestwe expect 1.6, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 47%
Nicewe expect 2.0, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 59%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Nice matches average only 2.1 cards (league 3.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Brest matches average only 2.4 cards (league 3.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Nice score a lot late on: 8 of 19 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Brest: 6 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Nice: 5 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Brest | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12:9 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:7 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Brest vs Nice?
Brest are the favourites. Chances: Brest win 43%, draw 26%, Nice win 30%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Brest vs Nice?
Expected goals: 2.9 (Brest 1.6, Nice 1.3). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 57%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Brest vs Nice?
The chance that both teams score is 60%.
When is Brest vs Nice?
The Ligue 1 match kicks off 23 October 2026, 19:45 (UK time).