Ligue 1Matchday 7
Lille vs Brest: prediction, tips and stats
·
Our tips
Tip in 3d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%53%O2.556%50%|exp. goals 1.7 : 1.0
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Lille1:1BrestD
- Brest3:3LilleD
- Brest2:0LilleL
- Lille3:1BrestW
- Brest1:1LilleD
Lille's record: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss3.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.6league 9.6under 9.5: 52%Expected corners: 9.6 in this match, 9.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.4league 3.6under 3.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 3.4 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.8 : 1.1total 2.9Attack/defence1.7 : 1.0total 2.7
Lille : BrestMost likely scores
Market1-112%1-09%2-110%2-09%0-06%0-1—Attack/defence1-112%1-011%2-110%2-09%0-07%0-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%1-01-09%1-011%2-12-110%2-110%2-02-09%2-09%0-00-06%0-07%0-10-1—0-17%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%75% | 75% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 77%77% | 77% |
| 12 – no draw | 76%75% | 75% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 66%72% | 72% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57%53% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56%50% | 50% |
| 1 – Lille win | 53%52% · Elo 56% | 52%· Elo 56% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 47%48% | 48% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44%50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score: no | 43%48% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34%28% | 28% |
| X – draw | 24%25% · Elo 24% | 25%· Elo 24% |
| 2 – Brest win | 23%23% · Elo 20% | 23%· Elo 20% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20%25% | 25% |
Attack vs defence
Lille attack vs Brest defenceattack1509defence1460+49 pts to the attack
Brest attack vs Lille defenceattack1517defence1609−92 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 47%over
We expect 8.9 in this match, 8.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.566%60%
8.553%49%
9.540%38%
10.529%28%
Each team on its own
Lillewe expect 5.4, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 61%
Brestwe expect 3.8, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 52%
Foulsleague average
Over 21.5 · 55%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 45%over
We expect 22.6 in this match, 21.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.562%53%
21.555%47%
22.548%41%
23.542%36%
Each team on its own
Lillewe expect 10.8, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 51%
Brestwe expect 11.9, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 62%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 57%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 43%over
We expect 4.0 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.576%63%
3.557%43%
4.538%26%
5.522%14%
Each team on its own
Lillewe expect 2.2, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 64%
Brestwe expect 1.9, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 55%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Brest matches average only 2.4 cards (league 3.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Lille: only 2 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Lille: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Brest: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9:4 | 13 |
| 7 | Brest | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12:9 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Lille vs Brest?
Lille are the favourites. Chances: Lille win 53%, draw 24%, Brest win 23%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Lille vs Brest?
Expected goals: 2.9 (Lille 1.8, Brest 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 56%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Brest?
The chance that both teams score is 57%.
When is Lille vs Brest?
The Ligue 1 match kicks off 17 October 2026, 19:45 (UK time).