Ligue 1Matchday 9
Lorient vs Brest: prediction, tips and stats
·
-:-Awaiting result
- Referee:
- Jeremie Pignard
Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Main tip
Total Goals: Under 2.555%
Lorient: clean sheets in each of their last 3 league matches
Other tips
- Shots on Target – Brest: Over 3.560%
Brest: 6.1 shots on target a match, Lorient's opponents had 4.2 on average, league average 3.9; over 3.5 shots on target in 6 of their last 8 league matches, Lorient's opponents had over 3.5 in 5 of 8 (50% of league matches)
For the brave
Correct Score: 1:114%
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defence
BTTS49%55%O2.543%50%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.2H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Brest2:0LorientL
- Lorient3:3BrestD
- Lorient0:1BrestL
- Brest4:0LorientL
- Lorient2:1BrestW
Lorient's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses3.2 goals per match
Cornersleague cornersin line with the league
9.3league 9.5under 9.5: 55%Expected corners: 9.3 in this match, 9.5 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end under 9.5 corners.Yellow cardsleague yellowsin line with the league
3.7league 3.7over 3.5: 50%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 24%.Referee
J. Pignard+0.5 yellow cards vs average23 matchesDutching(several bets at once)
71%X21:0coverageleague 64% · H2H 4/5Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.2 : 1.1total 2.3Attack/defence1.5 : 1.2total 2.7
Lorient : BrestMost likely scores
Market1-114%1-010%0-010%0-110%2-18%1-2—2-0—Attack/defence1-113%1-010%0-0—0-18%2-19%1-28%2-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-113%1-01-010%1-010%0-00-010%0-0—0-10-110%0-18%2-12-18%2-19%1-21-2—1-28%2-02-0—2-07%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 78%72% | 72% |
| 12 – no draw | 70%74% | 74% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70%75% | 75% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 67%69% | 69% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 63%58% | 58% |
| Our tip: Under 2.5 goals | 57%50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score: no | 51%45% | 45% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49%55% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43%50% | 50% |
| 1 – Lorient win | 37%42% · Elo 44% | 42%· Elo 44% |
| 2 – Brest win | 33%31% · Elo 29% | 31%· Elo 29% |
| X – draw | 30%26% · Elo 27% | 26%· Elo 27% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 30%25% | 25% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22%28% | 28% |
Attack vs defence
Lorient attack vs Brest defenceattack1430defence1463−33 pts to the attack
Brest attack vs Lorient defenceattack1508defence1518−10 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 51%close to the league averageunderover 49%
We expect 8.6 in this match, 8.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.562%62%
8.549%51%
9.536%40%
10.526%30%
Each team on its own
Lorientwe expect 4.2, league average 4.8 · chance of over 4.5: 40%
Brestwe expect 4.3, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 60%
Foulsleague average
Over 21.5 · 52%close to the league averageunder 49%over
We expect 22.0 in this match, 21.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.559%55%
21.552%48%
22.544%42%
23.538%37%
Each team on its own
Lorientwe expect 10.3, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 45%
Brestwe expect 13.1, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 73%
Referee: 19.7 fouls per match on average (23 matches in our data)−2.1 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 62%close to the league averageunderover 38%
We expect 3.1 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.560%63%
3.538%43%
4.521%26%
5.510%13%
Each team on its own
Lorientwe expect 1.6, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 46%
Brestwe expect 1.5, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 44%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
League form
League position
| # | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lorient | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7:6 | 12 |
| 14 | Brest | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14:12 | 9 |