Ligue 1Matchday 8
Marseille vs Le Havre: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 13hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS58%53%O2.560%53%|exp. goals 1.8 : 1.0
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Le Havre0:1MarseilleW
- Marseille6:2Le HavreW
- Le Havre1:3MarseilleW
- Marseille5:1Le HavreW
- Le Havre1:2MarseilleW
Marseille's record: 5 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses4.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.6under 9.5: 50%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 3.6over 3.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.1 : 1.1total 3.2Attack/defence1.8 : 1.0total 2.8
Marseille : Le HavreMost likely scores
Market1-110%1-08%2-110%2-09%3-17%0-0—3-0—Attack/defence1-111%1-011%2-110%2-010%3-1—0-06%3-06%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-110%1-111%1-01-08%1-011%2-12-110%2-110%2-02-09%2-010%3-13-17%3-1—0-00-0—0-06%3-03-0—3-06%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83%77% | 77% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 81%80% | 80% |
| 12 – no draw | 78%77% | 77% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 62%69% | 69% |
| 1 – Marseille win | 60%57% · Elo 58% | 57%· Elo 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60%53% | 53% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58%53% | 53% |
| Both teams to score: no | 42%47% | 47% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40%47% | 47% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 39%44% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38%31% | 31% |
| X – draw | 21%24% · Elo 23% | 24%· Elo 23% |
| 2 – Le Havre win | 18%20% · Elo 19% | 20%· Elo 19% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17%23% | 23% |
Attack vs defence
Marseille attack vs Le Havre defenceattack1574defence1472+102 pts to the attack
Le Havre attack vs Marseille defenceattack1405defence1520−115 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 50%close to the league averageunderover 50%
We expect 8.7 in this match, 8.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.563%60%
8.550%49%
9.537%38%
10.527%28%
Each team on its own
Marseillewe expect 4.9, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 54%
Le Havrewe expect 3.8, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 53%
Foulsleague average
Over 21.5 · 51%close to the league averageunder 49%over
We expect 22.0 in this match, 21.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.558%53%
21.551%47%
22.544%41%
23.537%36%
Each team on its own
Marseillewe expect 11.6, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 59%
Le Havrewe expect 10.4, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 46%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 52%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 49%
We expect 3.6 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.569%63%
3.549%43%
4.530%26%
5.516%14%
Each team on its own
Marseillewe expect 1.8, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 54%
Le Havrewe expect 1.8, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 52%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9:8 | 6 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4:8 | 2 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Marseille vs Le Havre?
Marseille are the favourites. Chances: Marseille win 60%, draw 21%, Le Havre win 18%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Marseille vs Le Havre?
Expected goals: 3.2 (Marseille 2.1, Le Havre 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 60%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Marseille vs Le Havre?
The chance that both teams score is 58%.
When is Marseille vs Le Havre?
The Ligue 1 match kicks off 25 October 2026, 16:15 (UK time).