2. BundesligaMatchday 9
Holstein Kiel vs Dresden: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS58%O2.555%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Dresden2:1Holstein KielL
- Holstein Kiel2:1DresdenW
- Dresden0:0Holstein KielD
- Holstein Kiel2:1DresdenW
- Holstein Kiel2:0DresdenW
Holstein Kiel's record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.6league 10.3under 10.5: 51%Expected corners: 10.6 in this match, 10.3 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.8league 4.5over 4.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 4.8 in this match, 4.5 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 18%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.6 : 1.3total 2.9Attack/defence1.6 : 1.3total 2.9
Holstein Kiel : DresdenMost likely scores
Model1-112%2-19%1-09%1-27%2-07%0-1—Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-09%1-27%2-07%0-17%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%2-12-19%2-19%1-01-09%1-09%1-21-27%1-27%2-02-07%2-07%0-10-1—0-17%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 12 – no draw | 75%75% | 75% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 70%70% | 70% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 54%55% | 55% |
| 1 – Holstein Kiel win | 46%45% · Elo 48% | 45%· Elo 48% |
| 2 – Dresden win | 30%30% · Elo 26% | 30%· Elo 26% |
| X – draw | 25%25% · Elo 26% | 25%· Elo 26% |
Attack vs defence
Holstein Kiel attack vs Dresden defenceattack1458defence1470−12 pts to the attack
Dresden attack vs Holstein Kiel defenceattack1473defence1504−31 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 10.5 · 60%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 40%
We expect 9.9 in this match, 10.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.9.552%56%
10.540%52%
11.530%41%
12.521%35%
Each team on its own
Holstein Kielwe expect 5.1, league average 5.5 · chance of over 5.5: 40%
Dresdenwe expect 4.3, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 26%
Foulsleague average
Over 21.5 · 54%close to the league averageunder 46%over
We expect 22.4 in this match, 21.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.561%57%
21.554%54%
22.547%44%
23.540%40%
Each team on its own
Holstein Kielwe expect 10.7, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 49%
Dresdenwe expect 11.8, league average 11.3 · chance of over 11.5: 50%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 62%close to the league averageunderover 38%
We expect 3.1 in this match, 3.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.560%65%
3.538%37%
4.521%30%
5.510%16%
Each team on its own
Holstein Kielwe expect 1.4, league average 2.0 · chance of over 1.5: 40%
Dresdenwe expect 1.6, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 48%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Holstein Kiel: no win in 9 matches
- Holstein Kiel: only 7 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Dresden concede a lot late on: 12 of 30 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Holstein Kiel: 9 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Dresden: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Dresden | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9:15 | 5 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7:11 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Holstein Kiel vs Dresden?
Holstein Kiel are the favourites. Chances: Holstein Kiel win 46%, draw 25%, Dresden win 30%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Holstein Kiel vs Dresden?
Expected goals: 2.9 (Holstein Kiel 1.6, Dresden 1.3). Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Holstein Kiel vs Dresden?
The 2. Bundesliga match kicks off 25 October 2026, 12:30 (UK time).