BundesligaMatchday 7
Augsburg vs Union Berlin: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS62%60%O2.561%58%|exp. goals 1.8 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Union Berlin4:0AugsburgL
- Augsburg1:1Union BerlinD
- Augsburg1:2Union BerlinL
- Union Berlin0:2AugsburgW
- Augsburg2:0Union BerlinW
Augsburg's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.4league 9.9over 9.5: 58%Expected corners: 10.4 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.5league 3.6under 3.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 3.5 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.9 : 1.3total 3.2Attack/defence1.8 : 1.3total 3.0
Augsburg : Union BerlinMost likely scores
Market1-111%2-110%1-07%2-07%1-27%2-2—Attack/defence1-111%2-110%1-08%2-08%1-27%2-26%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%1-01-07%1-08%2-02-07%2-08%1-21-27%1-27%2-22-2—2-26%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83%80% | 80% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%76% | 76% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 74%73% | 73% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62%60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61%58% | 58% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 61%64% | 64% |
| 1 – Augsburg win | 50%49% · Elo 48% | 49%· Elo 48% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 49%51% | 51% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39%42% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39%36% | 36% |
| Both teams to score: no | 38%40% | 40% |
| 2 – Union Berlin win | 25%27% · Elo 25% | 27%· Elo 25% |
| X – draw | 24%24% · Elo 27% | 24%· Elo 27% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17%20% | 20% |
Attack vs defence
Augsburg attack vs Union Berlin defenceattack1460defence1462−2 pts to the attack
Union Berlin attack vs Augsburg defenceattack1416defence1470−54 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 65%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 35%over
We expect 11.1 in this match, 9.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.576%61%
9.565%48%
10.554%36%
11.543%28%
Each team on its own
Augsburgwe expect 6.4, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 60%
Union Berlinwe expect 5.5, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 63%
Foulsleague average
Under 19.5 · 62%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 38%
We expect 18.3 in this match, 19.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.546%59%
19.538%53%
20.531%46%
21.525%39%
Each team on its own
Augsburgwe expect 8.9, league average 9.9 · chance of over 9.5: 40%
Union Berlinwe expect 9.2, league average 10.0 · chance of over 9.5: 44%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 52%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 48%over
We expect 3.8 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.572%66%
3.552%46%
4.533%30%
5.518%16%
Each team on its own
Augsburgwe expect 1.9, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 55%
Union Berlinwe expect 1.9, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 55%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Union Berlin concede 2.5 goals per game
- Augsburg: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Union Berlin: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Augsburg matches average 12.0 corners (league 9.9) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Augsburg: 18 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 11 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Union Berlin score a lot late on: 13 of 25 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Augsburg: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Union Berlin: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13:8 | 8 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5:17 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Augsburg are the favourites. Chances: Augsburg win 50%, draw 24%, Union Berlin win 25%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Expected goals: 3.2 (Augsburg 1.9, Union Berlin 1.3). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 61%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
The chance that both teams score is 62%.
When is Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
The Bundesliga match kicks off 24 October 2026, 14:30 (UK time).