BundesligaMatchday 6
Union Berlin vs Dortmund: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS61%59%O2.564%58%|exp. goals 1.2 : 1.8
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Union Berlin0:3DortmundL
- Dortmund3:0Union BerlinL
- Dortmund6:0Union BerlinL
- Union Berlin2:1DortmundW
- Union Berlin0:2DortmundL
Union Berlin's record: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses3.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.8league 9.9over 9.5: 51%Expected corners: 9.8 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.6league 3.6under 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.6 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.2 : 2.1total 3.3Attack/defence1.2 : 1.8total 3.0
Union Berlin : DortmundMost likely scores
Market1-110%1-210%0-29%0-17%1-37%2-1—2-2—Attack/defence1-111%1-210%0-28%0-19%1-3—2-17%2-26%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-110%1-111%1-21-210%1-210%0-20-29%0-28%0-10-17%0-19%1-31-37%1-3—2-12-1—2-17%2-22-2—2-26%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85%80% | 80% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 80%74% | 74% |
| 12 – no draw | 78%76% | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64%58% | 58% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61%59% | 59% |
| 2 – Dortmund win | 59%50% · Elo 63% | 50%· Elo 63% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 58%65% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42%35% | 35% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 40%50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score: no | 39%41% | 41% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36%42% | 42% |
| X – draw | 21%24% · Elo 22% | 24%· Elo 22% |
| 1 – Union Berlin win | 19%26% · Elo 15% | 26%· Elo 15% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15%20% | 20% |
Attack vs defence
Union Berlin attack vs Dortmund defenceattack1416defence1616−200 pts to the attack
Dortmund attack vs Union Berlin defenceattack1594defence1462+132 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 55%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 45%over
We expect 10.1 in this match, 9.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.567%61%
9.555%48%
10.543%36%
11.532%28%
Each team on its own
Union Berlinwe expect 5.1, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 40%
Dortmundwe expect 5.2, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 57%
Foulsleague average
Over 19.5 · 54%close to the league averageunder 46%over
We expect 20.4 in this match, 19.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.562%59%
19.554%53%
20.547%46%
21.540%39%
Each team on its own
Union Berlinwe expect 10.2, league average 9.9 · chance of over 9.5: 55%
Dortmundwe expect 10.2, league average 10.0 · chance of over 9.5: 56%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 57%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 43%over
We expect 4.0 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.576%66%
3.557%46%
4.538%30%
5.522%16%
Each team on its own
Union Berlinwe expect 2.4, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 68%
Dortmundwe expect 1.7, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 50%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Union Berlin concede 2.5 goals per game
- Union Berlin: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Dortmund matches average only 7.8 corners (league 9.9) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Union Berlin score a lot late on: 13 of 25 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Union Berlin: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Dortmund: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11:4 | 13 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5:17 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Union Berlin vs Dortmund?
Dortmund are the favourites. Chances: Union Berlin win 19%, draw 21%, Dortmund win 59%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Union Berlin vs Dortmund?
Expected goals: 3.3 (Union Berlin 1.2, Dortmund 2.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 64%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Dortmund?
The chance that both teams score is 61%.
When is Union Berlin vs Dortmund?
The Bundesliga match kicks off 17 October 2026, 14:30 (UK time).