BundesligaMatchday 6
M'gladbach vs Hoffenheim: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS69%66%O2.569%65%|exp. goals 1.7 : 1.6
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- M'gladbach4:0HoffenheimW
- Hoffenheim5:1M'gladbachL
- M'gladbach4:4HoffenheimD
- Hoffenheim1:2M'gladbachW
- Hoffenheim4:3M'gladbachL
M'gladbach's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses5.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.1league 9.9over 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.9league 3.6over 3.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 3.9 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.6 : 1.9total 3.5Attack/defence1.7 : 1.6total 3.4
M'gladbach : HoffenheimMost likely scores
Market1-110%1-29%2-17%2-27%1-36%1-0—0-1—Attack/defence1-110%1-28%2-19%2-27%1-3—1-06%0-15%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-110%1-110%1-21-29%1-28%2-12-17%2-19%2-22-27%2-27%1-31-36%1-3—1-01-0—1-06%0-10-1—0-15%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88%85% | 85% |
| 12 – no draw | 76%77% | 77% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 69%60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69%65% | 65% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 69%66% | 66% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 55%64% | 64% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 53%57% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47%43% | 43% |
| 2 – Hoffenheim win | 45%36% · Elo 35% | 36%· Elo 35% |
| 1 – M'gladbach win | 31%41% · Elo 36% | 41%· Elo 36% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31%35% | 35% |
| Both teams to score: no | 31%34% | 34% |
| X – draw | 24%23% · Elo 29% | 23%· Elo 29% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12%15% | 15% |
Attack vs defence
M'gladbach attack vs Hoffenheim defenceattack1458defence1467−9 pts to the attack
Hoffenheim attack vs M'gladbach defenceattack1529defence1446+83 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 52%close to the league averageunder 48%over
We expect 9.9 in this match, 9.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.564%61%
9.552%48%
10.540%36%
11.530%28%
Each team on its own
M'gladbachwe expect 5.1, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 40%
Hoffenheimwe expect 4.8, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 52%
Foulsleague average
Over 19.5 · 55%close to the league averageunder 45%over
We expect 20.4 in this match, 19.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.562%59%
19.555%53%
20.547%46%
21.540%39%
Each team on its own
M'gladbachwe expect 9.4, league average 9.9 · chance of over 9.5: 46%
Hoffenheimwe expect 11.1, league average 10.0 · chance of over 9.5: 65%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 3.4 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.565%66%
3.544%46%
4.526%30%
5.513%16%
Each team on its own
M'gladbachwe expect 1.9, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 56%
Hoffenheimwe expect 1.5, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 42%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Hoffenheim9 matches in a row over 2.5 goals awayoverall: 6Went on 61%League 78%Model 69%Record 26
- M'gladbach5 defeats in a rowat home: 2Went on 49%League 29%Model 45%Record 12
- M'gladbach7 matches in a row over 2.5 goalsat home: 3Went on 59%League 78%Model 69%Record 26
Worth knowing before kick-off
- M'gladbach concede 2.2 goals per game
- Hoffenheim concede 2.2 goals per game
- M'gladbach matches average 5.5 cards (league 3.8) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Hoffenheim: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- M'gladbach: 5 defeats in a row
- M'gladbach: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Hoffenheim: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9:13 | 3 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7:18 | 0 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win M'gladbach vs Hoffenheim?
Hoffenheim are the favourites. Chances: M'gladbach win 31%, draw 24%, Hoffenheim win 45%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in M'gladbach vs Hoffenheim?
Expected goals: 3.5 (M'gladbach 1.6, Hoffenheim 1.9). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 69%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in M'gladbach vs Hoffenheim?
The chance that both teams score is 69%.
When is M'gladbach vs Hoffenheim?
The Bundesliga match kicks off 18 October 2026, 16:30 (UK time).