BundesligaMatchday 7
Paderborn vs Hamburg: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 7hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS63%58%O2.561%55%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Paderborn2:0HamburgW
- Hamburg2:2PaderbornD
- Paderborn1:0HamburgW
- Hamburg1:2PaderbornW
- Hamburg2:2PaderbornD
Paderborn's record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.1league 9.9over 9.5: 55%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 3.6under 3.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.6 : 1.5total 3.1Attack/defence1.6 : 1.3total 2.9
Paderborn : HamburgMost likely scores
Market1-111%2-19%1-06%1-28%2-0—2-27%0-1—Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-09%1-27%2-07%2-2—0-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%2-12-19%2-19%1-01-06%1-09%1-21-28%1-27%2-02-0—2-07%2-22-27%2-2—0-10-1—0-17%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83%78% | 78% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%75% | 75% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 65%71% | 71% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63%58% | 58% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 62%67% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61%55% | 55% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 59%54% | 54% |
| 1 – Paderborn win | 40%46% · Elo 30% | 46%· Elo 30% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39%45% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38%33% | 33% |
| Both teams to score: no | 37%42% | 42% |
| 2 – Hamburg win | 34%29% · Elo 42% | 29%· Elo 42% |
| X – draw | 25%25% · Elo 28% | 25%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17%22% | 22% |
Attack vs defence
Paderborn attack vs Hamburg defenceattack1382defence1428−46 pts to the attack
Hamburg attack vs Paderborn defenceattack1403defence1459−56 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 59%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 41%
We expect 9.0 in this match, 9.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.554%61%
9.541%48%
10.530%36%
11.521%28%
Each team on its own
Paderbornwe expect 4.5, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 31%
Hamburgwe expect 4.1, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 39%
Foulsleague average
Over 19.5 · 56%close to the league averageunder 44%over
We expect 20.6 in this match, 19.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.563%59%
19.556%53%
20.549%46%
21.541%39%
Each team on its own
Paderbornwe expect 9.9, league average 9.9 · chance of over 9.5: 52%
Hamburgwe expect 10.8, league average 10.0 · chance of over 9.5: 62%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 63%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 37%
We expect 3.1 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.559%66%
3.537%46%
4.520%30%
5.59%16%
Each team on its own
Paderbornwe expect 1.4, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 41%
Hamburgwe expect 1.5, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 45%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Hamburg concede 2.4 goals per game
- Hamburg: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Paderborn: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Hamburg: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hamburg | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5:15 | 6 |
| 15 | Paderborn | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3:7 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Paderborn vs Hamburg?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Paderborn win 40%, draw 25%, Hamburg win 34%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Paderborn vs Hamburg?
Expected goals: 3.1 (Paderborn 1.6, Hamburg 1.5). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 61%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Paderborn vs Hamburg?
The chance that both teams score is 63%.
When is Paderborn vs Hamburg?
The Bundesliga match kicks off 24 October 2026, 14:30 (UK time).