Serie AMatchday 7
Roma vs Genoa: prediction, tips and stats
·
Our tips
Tip in 3d 8hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS48%51%O2.556%55%|exp. goals 2.0 : 0.9
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Genoa2:1RomaL
- Roma3:1GenoaW
- Roma3:1GenoaW
- Genoa1:1RomaD
- Roma1:0GenoaW
Roma's record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners8.8league 8.9over 8.5: 51%Expected corners: 8.8 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 8.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.6league 3.6under 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.6 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.2 : 0.8total 3.0Attack/defence2.0 : 0.9total 2.9
Roma : GenoaMost likely scores
Market2-012%1-011%1-110%2-110%3-09%3-1—Attack/defence2-011%1-011%1-110%2-110%3-07%3-17%
MarketAttack/defence2-02-012%2-011%1-01-011%1-011%1-11-110%1-110%2-12-110%2-110%3-03-09%3-07%3-13-1—3-17%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 88%84% | 84% |
| 12 – no draw | 81%78% | 78% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%78% | 78% |
| 1 – Roma win | 69%62% · Elo 68% | 62%· Elo 68% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 66%68% | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56%55% | 55% |
| Both teams to score: no | 52%49% | 49% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48%51% | 51% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44%45% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34%32% | 32% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 31%38% | 38% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20%22% | 22% |
| X – draw | 19%22% · Elo 20% | 22%· Elo 20% |
| 2 – Genoa win | 12%16% · Elo 12% | 16%· Elo 12% |
Attack vs defence
Roma attack vs Genoa defenceattack1627defence1472+155 pts to the attack
Genoa attack vs Roma defenceattack1436defence1617−181 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 8.2 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.557%57%
8.544%41%
9.532%28%
10.522%19%
Each team on its own
Romawe expect 5.6, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 63%
Genoawe expect 2.9, league average 3.7 · chance of over 3.5: 33%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 62%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 39%
We expect 22.1 in this match, 23.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.545%51%
23.539%45%
24.532%37%
25.526%33%
Each team on its own
Romawe expect 11.8, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 51%
Genoawe expect 10.2, league average 11.6 · chance of over 11.5: 34%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 46%over
We expect 3.9 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.574%62%
3.554%41%
4.535%28%
5.520%15%
Each team on its own
Romawe expect 2.4, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 67%
Genoawe expect 1.6, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 46%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Roma13 matches unbeatenat home: 15Went on 78%League 67%Model 88%Record 49
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Roma score 2.5 goals per game
- Roma concede only 0.5 goals per game
- Genoa score only 0.6 goals per game
- Roma: unbeaten in 13 matches
- Roma: 26 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 20 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Roma: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Genoa: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14:3 | 14 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5:11 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Roma vs Genoa?
Roma are the favourites. Chances: Roma win 69%, draw 19%, Genoa win 12%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Roma vs Genoa?
Expected goals: 3.0 (Roma 2.2, Genoa 0.8). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 56%. Most likely score: 2-0.
Will both teams score in Roma vs Genoa?
The chance that both teams score is 48%.
When is Roma vs Genoa?
The Serie A match kicks off 17 October 2026, 19:45 (UK time).