Serie AMatchday 8
Udinese vs Milan: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS52%57%O2.550%53%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.5
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Milan0:3UdineseW
- Udinese0:3MilanL
- Udinese0:4MilanL
- Milan1:0UdineseL
- Udinese2:3MilanL
Udinese's record: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses3.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners8.6league 8.9under 8.5: 51%Expected corners: 8.6 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 8.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.5league 3.6under 3.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 3.5 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.0 : 1.7total 2.7Attack/defence1.3 : 1.5total 2.8
Udinese : MilanMost likely scores
Market1-112%0-111%0-210%1-210%0-08%2-1—1-0—Attack/defence1-112%0-19%0-27%1-29%0-0—2-18%1-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%0-10-111%0-19%0-20-210%0-27%1-21-210%1-29%0-00-08%0-0—2-12-1—2-18%1-01-0—1-07%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 79%68% | 68% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75%77% | 77% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%74% | 74% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72%69% | 69% |
| 2 – Milan win | 53%43% · Elo 45% | 43%· Elo 45% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52%57% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50%53% | 53% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50%47% | 47% |
| Both teams to score: no | 48%43% | 43% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 47%57% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28%31% | 31% |
| X – draw | 26%26% · Elo 29% | 26%· Elo 29% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25%23% | 23% |
| 1 – Udinese win | 21%32% · Elo 26% | 32%· Elo 26% |
Attack vs defence
Udinese attack vs Milan defenceattack1478defence1554−76 pts to the attack
Milan attack vs Udinese defenceattack1559defence1449+110 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 46%
We expect 8.4 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.559%57%
8.546%41%
9.534%28%
10.523%19%
Each team on its own
Udinesewe expect 4.6, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 48%
Milanwe expect 4.0, league average 3.7 · chance of over 3.5: 56%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 69%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 31%
We expect 21.1 in this match, 23.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.538%51%
23.532%45%
24.526%37%
25.521%33%
Each team on its own
Udinesewe expect 10.8, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 40%
Milanwe expect 10.0, league average 11.6 · chance of over 11.5: 32%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 52%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 48%over
We expect 3.8 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.572%62%
3.552%41%
4.533%28%
5.519%15%
Each team on its own
Udinesewe expect 1.7, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 49%
Milanwe expect 2.1, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 62%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Milan matches average only 6.6 corners (league 8.9) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Udinese: 4 defeats in a row
- Udinese: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Milan: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11:5 | 12 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9:13 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Udinese vs Milan?
Milan are the favourites. Chances: Udinese win 21%, draw 26%, Milan win 53%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Udinese vs Milan?
Expected goals: 2.7 (Udinese 1.0, Milan 1.7). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 50%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Milan?
The chance that both teams score is 52%.
When is Udinese vs Milan?
The Serie A match kicks off 25 October 2026, 19:45 (UK time).