Eerste DivisieMatchday 12
Den Bosch vs MVV Maastricht: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 9d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS58%O2.558%|exp. goals 1.9 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Den Bosch1:2MVV MaastrichtL
- MVV Maastricht2:4Den BoschW
- MVV Maastricht5:0Den BoschL
- Den Bosch1:1MVV MaastrichtD
- MVV Maastricht1:0Den BoschL
Den Bosch's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses3.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.3league 10.4under 10.5: 55%Expected corners: 10.3 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.0league 3.2under 3.5: 64%Expected yellow cards: 3.0 in this match, 3.2 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.8 : 1.2total 3.0Attack/defence1.9 : 1.2total 3.0
Den Bosch : MVV MaastrichtMost likely scores
Model1-110%2-110%1-09%2-08%1-26%3-1—Attack/defence1-111%2-110%1-09%2-09%1-26%3-16%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-110%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%1-01-09%1-09%2-02-08%2-09%1-21-26%1-26%3-13-1—3-16%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 12 – no draw | 78%77% | 77% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 75%77% | 77% |
| 1 – Den Bosch win | 53%53% · Elo 49% | 53%· Elo 49% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 47%47% | 47% |
| 2 – MVV Maastricht win | 25%23% · Elo 26% | 23%· Elo 26% |
| X – draw | 22%23% · Elo 25% | 23%· Elo 25% |
Attack vs defence
Den Bosch attack vs MVV Maastricht defenceattack1481defence1442+39 pts to the attack
MVV Maastricht attack vs Den Bosch defenceattack1394defence1489−95 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%
We expect 9.4 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.559%61%
9.547%51%
10.535%36%
11.525%29%
Each team on its own
Den Boschwe expect 5.5, league average 5.4 · chance of over 5.5: 47%
MVV Maastrichtwe expect 3.8, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 34%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 58%close to the league averageunderover 42%
We expect 22.6 in this match, 23.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.549%48%
23.542%45%
24.535%36%
25.529%32%
Each team on its own
Den Boschwe expect 10.9, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 41%
MVV Maastrichtwe expect 11.6, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 49%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 53%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 47%over
We expect 3.8 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.573%59%
3.553%31%
4.534%20%
5.519%11%
Each team on its own
Den Boschwe expect 2.1, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 60%
MVV Maastrichtwe expect 1.9, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 54%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- MVV Maastricht concede 2.0 goals per game
- MVV Maastricht matches average only 8.3 corners (league 10.4) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- MVV Maastricht: 16 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 11 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Den Bosch: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- MVV Maastricht: 5 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | MVV Maastricht | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13:20 | 16 |
| 14 | Den Bosch | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 14:18 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Den Bosch vs MVV Maastricht?
Den Bosch are the favourites. Chances: Den Bosch win 53%, draw 22%, MVV Maastricht win 25%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Den Bosch vs MVV Maastricht?
Expected goals: 3.0 (Den Bosch 1.8, MVV Maastricht 1.2). Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Den Bosch vs MVV Maastricht?
The Eerste Divisie match kicks off 23 October 2026, 19:00 (UK time).