Eerste DivisieMatchday 12
Graafschap vs Waalwijk: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 9d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS66%O2.565%|exp. goals 1.7 : 1.7
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Graafschap2:4WaalwijkL
- Waalwijk1:4GraafschapW
- Graafschap1:0WaalwijkW
- Waalwijk0:0GraafschapD
- Graafschap4:0WaalwijkW
Graafschap's record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss3.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.3league 10.4under 10.5: 55%Expected corners: 10.3 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.4league 3.2under 3.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 3.4 in this match, 3.2 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.9 : 1.6total 3.5Attack/defence1.7 : 1.7total 3.4
Graafschap : WaalwijkMost likely scores
Model1-19%2-19%1-27%2-27%1-06%0-1—Attack/defence1-110%2-18%1-28%2-27%1-06%0-16%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-19%1-110%2-12-19%2-18%1-21-27%1-28%2-22-27%2-27%1-01-06%1-06%0-10-1—0-16%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 12 – no draw | 79%77% | 77% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 66%62% | 62% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 55%61% | 61% |
| 1 – Graafschap win | 45%39% · Elo 35% | 39%· Elo 35% |
| 2 – Waalwijk win | 34%38% · Elo 39% | 38%· Elo 39% |
| X – draw | 21%23% · Elo 26% | 23%· Elo 26% |
Attack vs defence
Graafschap attack vs Waalwijk defenceattack1539defence1550−11 pts to the attack
Waalwijk attack vs Graafschap defenceattack1568defence1464+104 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 51%close to the league averageunderover 49%
We expect 9.6 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.562%61%
9.549%51%
10.538%36%
11.527%29%
Each team on its own
Graafschapwe expect 4.8, league average 5.4 · chance of over 5.5: 34%
Waalwijkwe expect 4.8, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 51%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 58%close to the league averageunderover 42%
We expect 22.7 in this match, 23.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.549%48%
23.542%45%
24.536%36%
25.530%32%
Each team on its own
Graafschapwe expect 11.3, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 45%
Waalwijkwe expect 11.4, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 46%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 75%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 25%
We expect 2.5 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.546%59%
3.525%31%
4.512%20%
5.55%11%
Each team on its own
Graafschapwe expect 1.3, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 37%
Waalwijkwe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 33%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Graafschap concede 2.3 goals per game
- Graafschap: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Graafschap: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Waalwijk: 5 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Waalwijk | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 19:15 | 14 |
| 16 | Graafschap | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13:23 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Graafschap vs Waalwijk?
Graafschap are the favourites. Chances: Graafschap win 45%, draw 21%, Waalwijk win 34%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Graafschap vs Waalwijk?
Expected goals: 3.5 (Graafschap 1.9, Waalwijk 1.6). Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Graafschap vs Waalwijk?
The Eerste Divisie match kicks off 23 October 2026, 19:00 (UK time).