Eerste DivisieMatchday 12
NAC Breda vs Heracles: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 9d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS64%O2.562%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.6
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Heracles0:1NAC BredaW
- NAC Breda2:1HeraclesW
- NAC Breda1:1HeraclesD
- Heracles2:0NAC BredaL
- NAC Breda0:3HeraclesL
NAC Breda's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.3league 10.4under 10.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.3 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.4league 3.2under 3.5: 56%Expected yellow cards: 3.4 in this match, 3.2 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.6 : 2.5total 4.1Attack/defence1.6 : 1.6total 3.2
NAC Breda : HeraclesMost likely scores
Model1-16%2-1—1-28%1-37%2-27%1-0—0-1—2-36%Attack/defence1-111%2-19%1-28%1-3—2-27%1-06%0-16%2-3—
ModelAttack/defence1-11-16%1-111%2-12-1—2-19%1-21-28%1-28%1-31-37%1-3—2-22-27%2-27%1-01-0—1-06%0-10-1—0-16%2-32-36%2-3—
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 12 – no draw | 81%76% | 76% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 75%61% | 61% |
| 2 – Heracles win | 56%37% · Elo 36% | 37%· Elo 36% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 44%63% | 63% |
| 1 – NAC Breda win | 25%39% · Elo 38% | 39%· Elo 38% |
| X – draw | 19%24% · Elo 26% | 24%· Elo 26% |
Attack vs defence
NAC Breda attack vs Heracles defenceattack1579defence1611−32 pts to the attack
Heracles attack vs NAC Breda defenceattack1657defence1582+75 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 52%close to the league averageunder 49%over
We expect 9.8 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.564%61%
9.552%51%
10.540%36%
11.529%29%
Each team on its own
NAC Bredawe expect 5.0, league average 5.4 · chance of over 5.5: 38%
Heracleswe expect 4.9, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 52%
Foulsleague average
Over 23.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 46%over
We expect 24.4 in this match, 23.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.561%48%
23.554%45%
24.547%36%
25.541%32%
Each team on its own
NAC Bredawe expect 11.7, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 50%
Heracleswe expect 12.8, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 61%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 62%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 39%
We expect 3.1 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.560%59%
3.539%31%
4.521%20%
5.510%11%
Each team on its own
NAC Bredawe expect 1.3, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 36%
Heracleswe expect 1.9, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 55%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Heracles score 3.1 goals per game
- NAC Breda: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Heracles: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- NAC Breda: newly promoted
- Heracles: newly promoted
- NAC Breda: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Heracles: 5 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 31:12 | 25 |
| 5 | NAC Breda | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 20:19 | 17 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win NAC Breda vs Heracles?
Heracles are the favourites. Chances: NAC Breda win 25%, draw 19%, Heracles win 56%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in NAC Breda vs Heracles?
Expected goals: 4.1 (NAC Breda 1.6, Heracles 2.5). Most likely score: 1-2.
When is NAC Breda vs Heracles?
The Eerste Divisie match kicks off 23 October 2026, 19:00 (UK time).