EredivisieMatchday 10
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS66%58%O2.565%55%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- AZ Alkmaar2:2TwenteD
- Twente1:0AZ AlkmaarL
- AZ Alkmaar3:2TwenteW
- Twente2:3AZ AlkmaarW
- AZ Alkmaar1:0TwenteW
AZ Alkmaar's record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss3.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.8league 10.4over 10.5: 51%Expected corners: 10.8 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 47% of matches end over 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows2.8league 3.0under 3.5: 69%Expected yellow cards: 2.8 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.In this league 65% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.8 : 1.6total 3.4Attack/defence1.6 : 1.3total 2.9
AZ Alkmaar : TwenteMost likely scores
Market1-111%2-19%1-06%1-28%2-27%0-1—2-0—Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-08%1-28%2-2—0-17%2-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%2-12-19%2-19%1-01-06%1-08%1-21-28%1-28%2-22-27%2-2—0-10-1—0-17%2-02-0—2-07%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85%78% | 78% |
| 12 – no draw | 76%75% | 75% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 66%58% | 58% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 66%68% | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65%55% | 55% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 58%57% | 57% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 57%67% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43%33% | 33% |
| 1 – AZ Alkmaar win | 42%43% · Elo 42% | 43%· Elo 42% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35%45% | 45% |
| 2 – Twente win | 34%32% · Elo 29% | 32%· Elo 29% |
| Both teams to score: no | 34%42% | 42% |
| X – draw | 24%25% · Elo 29% | 25%· Elo 29% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15%22% | 22% |
Attack vs defence
AZ Alkmaar attack vs Twente defenceattack1568defence1617−49 pts to the attack
Twente attack vs AZ Alkmaar defenceattack1574defence1590−16 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 10.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 10.1 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.9.555%51%
10.543%41%
11.533%33%
12.523%21%
Each team on its own
AZ Alkmaarwe expect 5.3, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 43%
Twentewe expect 4.9, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 54%
Foulsleague average
Under 19.5 · 57%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 43%
We expect 18.8 in this match, 19.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.550%59%
19.543%50%
20.535%43%
21.529%37%
Each team on its own
AZ Alkmaarwe expect 8.6, league average 9.4 · chance of over 9.5: 37%
Twentewe expect 10.2, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 44%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 51%close to the league averageunder 49%over
We expect 2.7 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.575%71%
2.551%48%
3.529%29%
4.514%14%
Each team on its own
AZ Alkmaarwe expect 1.6, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 48%
Twentewe expect 1.1, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 31%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18:8 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16:8 | 17 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: AZ Alkmaar win 42%, draw 24%, Twente win 34%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?
Expected goals: 3.4 (AZ Alkmaar 1.8, Twente 1.6). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 65%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?
The chance that both teams score is 66%.
When is AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?
The Eredivisie match kicks off 25 October 2026, 19:00 (UK time).