EredivisieMatchday 8

Go Ahead Eagles 3-3 Sparta: prediction, tips and result

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Go Ahead Eagles
3-12-53-31-11-1
3-3Full time(half time 0-1)
Sparta
0-41-42-21-23-3
Stadium:
De Adelaarshorst, Deventer
Referee:
Jeroen Manschot

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Yellow Cards: Under 3.5Won61%

under 3.5 yellow cards in 7 of the hosts' last 7 league matches and 7 of the visitors' last 7 (64% of league matches); 1.4 yellow cards a match in the hosts' matches, 2.0 in the visitors', league average 3.1

Other tips

  • Both Teams To Score: YesWon68%

    goals at both ends in 7 of the hosts' last 7 league matches and 5 of the visitors' last 7 (64% of league matches)

  • Fouls: Under 18.5Won69%

    our numbers: 16.5 fouls against a league average of 19.6; referee Jeroen Manschot averages 18.3 fouls a match, league average 19.6

  • Offsides: Under 2.5Won60%

    our numbers: 2.3 offsides against a league average of 2.6

For the brave
Yellow Cards: Under 2.5Lost39%

1.4 yellow cards a match in the hosts' matches, 2.0 in the visitors', league average 3.1; under 2.5 yellow cards in 5 of the hosts' last 7 league matches and 5 of the visitors' last 7 (40% of league matches)

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloGo Ahead Eagles159357%50%Draw22%27%Sparta152722%23%favourite did not win
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS66%63%O2.568%64%|exp. goals 2.0 : 1.3both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Sparta2:2Go Ahead EaglesD
  2. Go Ahead Eagles0:3SpartaL
  3. Go Ahead Eagles1:0SpartaW
  4. Sparta1:2Go Ahead EaglesW
  5. Sparta0:2Go Ahead EaglesW
Go Ahead Eagles's record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.9league 10.4over 10.5: 52%Expected corners: 10.9 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 47% of matches end over 10.5 corners.won · ended 15
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.2league 3.1under 3.5: 61%Expected yellow cards: 3.2 in this match, 3.1 on average in the league.In this league 65% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 16%.won · ended 3
RefereeJ. Manschot+0.7 yellow cards vs average39 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)65%11:1coverageleague 55% · H2H 3/5not covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.2 : 1.3total 3.5Attack/defence2.0 : 1.3total 3.3
Go Ahead Eagles : Sparta
Most likely scores
Market1-19%2-19%2-07%1-0—3-17%1-2—2-26%Attack/defence1-110%2-110%2-07%1-07%3-1—1-26%2-26%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-19%1-110%2-12-19%2-110%2-02-07%2-07%1-01-0—1-07%3-13-17%3-1—1-21-2—1-26%2-22-26%2-26%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals87%84%84%
1X – home team avoid defeat79%75%75%
12 – no draw79%78%78%
Over 2.5 goals68%64%64%
Both teams to score: yes66%63%63%
1 – Go Ahead Eagles win57%52% · Elo 50%52%· Elo 50%
Under 3.5 goals54%58%58%
Over 3.5 goals46%42%42%
X2 – away team avoid defeat44%48%48%
Both teams to score: no34%37%37%
Under 2.5 goals32%36%36%
X – draw22%23% · Elo 27%23%· Elo 27%
2 – Sparta win22%25% · Elo 23%25%· Elo 23%
Under 1.5 goals13%16%16%
Attack vs defence
Go Ahead Eagles attack vs Sparta defenceattack1519defence1446+73 pts to the attack
Sparta attack vs Go Ahead Eagles defenceattack1439defence1456−17 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 10.5 · 58%close to the league averageunderover 42%
We expect 10.1 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
9.554%51%
10.542%41%
11.532%33%
12.523%21%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Go Ahead Eagleswe expect 5.7, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 50%
Spartawe expect 4.4, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 45%
Foulsleague average
Under 19.5 · 75%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 25%
We expect 16.5 in this match, 19.6 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
18.531%59%
19.525%50%
20.519%43%
21.514%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Go Ahead Eagleswe expect 8.1, league average 9.4 · chance of over 9.5: 30%
Spartawe expect 9.5, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 37%
Referee: 18.3 fouls per match on average (33 matches in our data)−2.2 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 60%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 40%
We expect 2.3 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.567%71%
2.540%47%
3.520%28%
4.59%13%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Go Ahead Eagleswe expect 1.4, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 40%
Spartawe expect 0.9, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 23%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Sparta concede 2.6 goals per game
  • Go Ahead Eagles concede 2.2 goals per game
  • Go Ahead Eagles matches average only 1.9 cards (league 3.2) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
  • Sparta: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
  • Go Ahead Eagles: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
  • Sparta: only 6 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 12 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Go Ahead Eagles: 20 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Sparta: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Go Ahead Eagles

Sparta

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8Go Ahead Eagles825119:1711
14Sparta813413:206
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta?

Go Ahead Eagles 3-3 Sparta (half time 0-1).

Did the Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Yellow Cards: Under 3.5. The tip won.

See also