EredivisieMatchday 9
Heerenveen vs Excelsior: prediction, tips and stats
·
Our tips
Tip in 2d 8hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS64%59%O2.567%58%|exp. goals 1.8 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Excelsior1:2HeerenveenW
- Heerenveen2:1ExcelsiorW
- Excelsior3:0HeerenveenL
- Heerenveen0:3ExcelsiorL
- Heerenveen0:0ExcelsiorD
Heerenveen's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.3league 10.4under 10.5: 55%Expected corners: 10.3 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows2.9league 3.0under 3.5: 67%Expected yellow cards: 2.9 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.In this league 65% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.2 : 1.3total 3.5Attack/defence1.8 : 1.2total 3.0
Heerenveen : ExcelsiorMost likely scores
Market1-19%2-110%1-06%2-08%3-17%1-2—2-2—Attack/defence1-111%2-110%1-08%2-08%3-1—1-27%2-26%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-19%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%1-01-06%1-08%2-02-08%2-08%3-13-17%3-1—1-21-2—1-27%2-22-2—2-26%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87%80% | 80% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 80%74% | 74% |
| 12 – no draw | 78%76% | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67%58% | 58% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64%59% | 59% |
| 1 – Heerenveen win | 58%50% · Elo 52% | 50%· Elo 52% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 55%64% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45%36% | 36% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 42%50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score: no | 36%41% | 41% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33%42% | 42% |
| X – draw | 22%24% · Elo 27% | 24%· Elo 27% |
| 2 – Excelsior win | 20%26% · Elo 22% | 26%· Elo 22% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13%20% | 20% |
Attack vs defence
Heerenveen attack vs Excelsior defenceattack1492defence1469+23 pts to the attack
Excelsior attack vs Heerenveen defenceattack1446defence1503−57 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 10.5 · 64%close to the league averageunderover 37%
We expect 9.6 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.9.548%51%
10.537%41%
11.526%33%
12.518%21%
Each team on its own
Heerenveenwe expect 5.2, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 42%
Excelsiorwe expect 4.1, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 39%
Foulsleague average
Under 19.5 · 69%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 31%
We expect 17.3 in this match, 19.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.538%59%
19.531%50%
20.524%43%
21.519%37%
Each team on its own
Heerenveenwe expect 7.0, league average 9.4 · chance of over 9.5: 18%
Excelsiorwe expect 10.1, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 43%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 63%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 37%
We expect 2.2 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.564%71%
2.537%48%
3.518%29%
4.57%14%
Each team on its own
Heerenveenwe expect 1.2, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 34%
Excelsiorwe expect 0.9, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 24%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Excelsior9 matches in a row over 2.5 goalsaway: 7Went on 58%League 72%Model 67%Record 15
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Excelsior: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Heerenveen: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Excelsior: 5 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16:14 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11:11 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
Heerenveen are the favourites. Chances: Heerenveen win 58%, draw 22%, Excelsior win 20%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
Expected goals: 3.5 (Heerenveen 2.2, Excelsior 1.3). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 67%. Most likely score: 2-1.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
The chance that both teams score is 64%.
When is Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
The Eredivisie match kicks off 16 October 2026, 19:00 (UK time).