EredivisieMatchday 10
Nijmegen vs Groningen: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 9hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS66%62%O2.565%62%|exp. goals 1.9 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Groningen2:1NijmegenL
- Nijmegen2:0GroningenW
- Groningen2:1NijmegenL
- Nijmegen6:0GroningenW
- Groningen0:1NijmegenW
Nijmegen's record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.2league 10.4under 10.5: 56%Expected corners: 10.2 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.0league 3.0under 3.5: 64%Expected yellow cards: 3.0 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.In this league 65% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.9 : 1.5total 3.4Attack/defence1.9 : 1.3total 3.2
Nijmegen : GroningenMost likely scores
Market1-111%2-19%1-0—2-06%1-27%2-27%Attack/defence1-110%2-110%1-07%2-07%1-27%2-26%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-110%2-12-19%2-110%1-01-0—1-07%2-02-06%2-07%1-21-27%1-27%2-22-27%2-26%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85%83% | 83% |
| 12 – no draw | 76%77% | 77% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 70%74% | 74% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 66%62% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65%62% | 62% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 57%60% | 60% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 54%49% | 49% |
| 1 – Nijmegen win | 46%51% · Elo 44% | 51%· Elo 44% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43%40% | 40% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35%38% | 38% |
| Both teams to score: no | 34%38% | 38% |
| 2 – Groningen win | 30%26% · Elo 28% | 26%· Elo 28% |
| X – draw | 24%23% · Elo 29% | 23%· Elo 29% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15%17% | 17% |
Attack vs defence
Nijmegen attack vs Groningen defenceattack1562defence1509+53 pts to the attack
Groningen attack vs Nijmegen defenceattack1502defence1524−22 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 10.5 · 62%close to the league averageunderover 38%
We expect 9.7 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.9.550%51%
10.538%41%
11.528%33%
12.519%21%
Each team on its own
Nijmegenwe expect 5.0, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 39%
Groningenwe expect 4.5, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 47%
Foulsleague average
Under 19.5 · 61%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 39%
We expect 18.4 in this match, 19.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.547%59%
19.539%50%
20.532%43%
21.526%37%
Each team on its own
Nijmegenwe expect 8.9, league average 9.4 · chance of over 9.5: 40%
Groningenwe expect 9.3, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 34%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 51%close to the league averageunder 49%over
We expect 2.7 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.575%71%
2.551%48%
3.529%29%
4.514%14%
Each team on its own
Nijmegenwe expect 1.7, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 49%
Groningenwe expect 1.1, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 30%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Nijmegen: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Groningen: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Nijmegen: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Groningen: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20:14 | 14 |
| 11 | Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13:14 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Nijmegen are the favourites. Chances: Nijmegen win 46%, draw 24%, Groningen win 30%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Expected goals: 3.4 (Nijmegen 1.9, Groningen 1.5). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 65%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Nijmegen vs Groningen?
The chance that both teams score is 66%.
When is Nijmegen vs Groningen?
The Eredivisie match kicks off 25 October 2026, 13:30 (UK time).