EredivisieMatchday 10
Sparta vs Ajax: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 9hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS62%60%O2.571%59%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.8
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Ajax4:0SpartaL
- Sparta3:3AjaxD
- Ajax1:1SpartaD
- Sparta0:2AjaxL
- Sparta2:2AjaxD
Sparta's record: 0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses3.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.6league 10.4under 10.5: 51%Expected corners: 10.6 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.0league 3.0under 3.5: 65%Expected yellow cards: 3.0 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.In this league 65% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.1 : 2.6total 3.7Attack/defence1.3 : 1.8total 3.1
Sparta : AjaxMost likely scores
Market1-18%1-29%0-28%1-38%0-1—0-37%2-1—2-2—Attack/defence1-111%1-29%0-27%1-3—0-18%0-3—2-17%2-26%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-18%1-111%1-21-29%1-29%0-20-28%0-27%1-31-38%1-3—0-10-1—0-18%0-30-37%0-3—2-12-1—2-17%2-22-2—2-26%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89%81% | 81% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 86%72% | 72% |
| 12 – no draw | 83%76% | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71%59% | 59% |
| 2 – Ajax win | 69%48% · Elo 58% | 48%· Elo 58% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62%60% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50%36% | 36% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 50%64% | 64% |
| Both teams to score: no | 38%40% | 40% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 31%52% | 52% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29%41% | 41% |
| X – draw | 17%24% · Elo 24% | 24%· Elo 24% |
| 1 – Sparta win | 14%28% · Elo 18% | 28%· Elo 18% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 11%19% | 19% |
Attack vs defence
Sparta attack vs Ajax defenceattack1453defence1607−154 pts to the attack
Ajax attack vs Sparta defenceattack1581defence1443+138 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 10.5 · 53%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 47%
We expect 10.5 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.9.559%51%
10.547%41%
11.536%33%
12.526%21%
Each team on its own
Spartawe expect 4.5, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 31%
Ajaxwe expect 6.1, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 70%
Foulsleague average
Under 19.5 · 68%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 32%
We expect 17.5 in this match, 19.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.540%59%
19.532%50%
20.526%43%
21.520%37%
Each team on its own
Spartawe expect 8.3, league average 9.4 · chance of over 9.5: 33%
Ajaxwe expect 8.9, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 29%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 50%close to the league averageunderover 50%
We expect 2.7 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.574%71%
2.550%48%
3.528%29%
4.514%14%
Each team on its own
Spartawe expect 1.3, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 39%
Ajaxwe expect 1.3, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 38%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Sparta concede 2.7 goals per game
- Ajax score 2.4 goals per game
- Sparta: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Ajax concede a lot late on: 9 of 21 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Sparta: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Ajax: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22:10 | 15 |
| 14 | Sparta | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13:20 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sparta vs Ajax?
Ajax are the favourites. Chances: Sparta win 14%, draw 17%, Ajax win 69%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Sparta vs Ajax?
Expected goals: 3.7 (Sparta 1.1, Ajax 2.6). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 71%. Most likely score: 1-2.
Will both teams score in Sparta vs Ajax?
The chance that both teams score is 62%.
When is Sparta vs Ajax?
The Eredivisie match kicks off 25 October 2026, 15:45 (UK time).