EredivisieMatchday 9
Sparta vs Willem II: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS63%59%O2.566%59%|exp. goals 1.9 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Sparta4:0Willem IIW
- Willem II1:2SpartaW
- Sparta1:0Willem IIW
- Willem II0:3SpartaW
- Sparta0:2Willem IIL
Sparta's record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.7league 10.4under 10.5: 51%Expected corners: 10.7 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows2.8league 3.0under 3.5: 70%Expected yellow cards: 2.8 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.In this league 65% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.2 : 1.2total 3.4Attack/defence1.9 : 1.2total 3.1
Sparta : Willem IIMost likely scores
Market1-19%2-110%1-07%2-08%3-17%1-2—Attack/defence1-111%2-110%1-08%2-08%3-16%1-26%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-19%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%1-01-07%1-08%2-02-08%2-08%3-13-17%3-16%1-21-2—1-26%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86%81% | 81% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 81%76% | 76% |
| 12 – no draw | 79%77% | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66%59% | 59% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63%59% | 59% |
| 1 – Sparta win | 60%53% · Elo 55% | 53%· Elo 55% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 56%63% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44%37% | 37% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 40%47% | 47% |
| Both teams to score: no | 37%41% | 41% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34%41% | 41% |
| X – draw | 21%23% · Elo 26% | 23%· Elo 26% |
| 2 – Willem II win | 19%24% · Elo 20% | 24%· Elo 20% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14%19% | 19% |
Attack vs defence
Sparta attack vs Willem II defenceattack1453defence1407+46 pts to the attack
Willem II attack vs Sparta defenceattack1374defence1443−69 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 10.5 · 60%close to the league averageunderover 40%
We expect 9.9 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.9.552%51%
10.540%41%
11.530%33%
12.521%21%
Each team on its own
Spartawe expect 5.5, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 47%
Willem IIwe expect 4.3, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 42%
Foulsleague average
Under 19.5 · 61%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 39%
We expect 18.3 in this match, 19.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.547%59%
19.539%50%
20.532%43%
21.525%37%
Each team on its own
Spartawe expect 8.3, league average 9.4 · chance of over 9.5: 33%
Willem IIwe expect 9.9, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 41%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 51%close to the league averageunderover 49%
We expect 2.6 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.573%71%
2.549%48%
3.527%29%
4.513%14%
Each team on its own
Spartawe expect 1.2, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 35%
Willem IIwe expect 1.4, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 39%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Sparta7 matches in a row over 2.5 goalsat home: 3Went on 59%League 72%Model 66%Record 15
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Sparta concede 2.7 goals per game
- Willem II concede 2.6 goals per game
- Sparta: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Willem II: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Willem II: no win in 8 matches
- Sparta: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Willem II: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Sparta | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13:20 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7:23 | 2 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sparta vs Willem II?
Sparta are the favourites. Chances: Sparta win 60%, draw 21%, Willem II win 19%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Sparta vs Willem II?
Expected goals: 3.4 (Sparta 2.2, Willem II 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 66%. Most likely score: 2-1.
Will both teams score in Sparta vs Willem II?
The chance that both teams score is 63%.
When is Sparta vs Willem II?
The Eredivisie match kicks off 17 October 2026, 20:00 (UK time).