EkstraklasaMatchday 12
Legia vs Lech Poznan: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%O2.552%53%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Lech Poznan4:0LegiaL
- Legia0:0Lech PoznanD
- Legia0:1Lech PoznanL
- Lech Poznan5:2LegiaL
- Lech Poznan1:2LegiaW
Legia's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.7under 9.5: 50%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 4.0over 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 4.0 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.5 : 1.3total 2.8Attack/defence1.5 : 1.3total 2.8
Legia : Lech PoznanMost likely scores
Model1-114%2-19%1-08%1-28%0-08%0-1—2-0—Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-09%1-28%0-0—0-18%2-07%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-114%1-112%2-12-19%2-19%1-01-08%1-09%1-21-28%1-28%0-00-08%0-0—0-10-1—0-18%2-02-0—2-07%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78%77% | 77% |
| 12 – no draw | 72%74% | 74% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70%69% | 69% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 67%66% | 66% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 61%60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52%53% | 53% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48%47% | 47% |
| 1 – Legia win | 39%40% · Elo 33% | 40%· Elo 33% |
| 2 – Lech Poznan win | 33%34% · Elo 39% | 34%· Elo 39% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30%31% | 31% |
| X – draw | 28%26% · Elo 29% | 26%· Elo 29% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22%23% | 23% |
Attack vs defence
Legia attack vs Lech Poznan defenceattack1540defence1578−38 pts to the attack
Lech Poznan attack vs Legia defenceattack1627defence1585+42 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 56%close to the league averageunder 44%over
We expect 9.2 in this match, 8.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.568%61%
8.556%52%
9.543%39%
10.532%24%
Each team on its own
Legiawe expect 4.7, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 50%
Lech Poznanwe expect 4.7, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 67%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 54%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 46%
We expect 23.3 in this match, 23.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.553%60%
23.546%53%
24.540%48%
25.533%42%
Each team on its own
Legiawe expect 11.4, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 46%
Lech Poznanwe expect 11.8, league average 12.0 · chance of over 12.5: 40%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 58%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 42%over
We expect 3.0 in this match, 2.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.580%75%
2.558%50%
3.536%32%
4.519%17%
Each team on its own
Legiawe expect 1.7, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 50%
Lech Poznanwe expect 1.3, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 39%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Legia matches average only 2.8 cards (league 4.1) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Lech Poznan score 2.3 goals per game
- Lech Poznan: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Legia: unbeaten in 14 matches
- Legia: 8 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Lech Poznan: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Legia | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 21:8 | 22 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 21:8 | 22 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Legia vs Lech Poznan?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Legia win 39%, draw 28%, Lech Poznan win 33%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Legia vs Lech Poznan?
Expected goals: 2.8 (Legia 1.5, Lech Poznan 1.3). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 52%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Legia vs Lech Poznan?
The Ekstraklasa match kicks off 25 October 2026, 16:30 (UK time).