Liga PortugalMatchday 9
Estoril vs Moreirense: prediction, tips and stats
·
Our tips
Tip in 11d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS52%52%O2.549%49%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Moreirense1:0EstorilL
- Estoril3:3MoreirenseD
- Moreirense2:2EstorilD
- Estoril2:2MoreirenseD
- Moreirense2:1EstorilL
Estoril's record: 0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses3.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.1league 9.3under 9.5: 58%Expected corners: 9.1 in this match, 9.3 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.6league 4.8under 4.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 4.6 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 47% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.6 : 1.0total 2.6Attack/defence1.5 : 1.1total 2.6
Estoril : MoreirenseMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-011%2-010%2-110%0-08%0-1—Attack/defence1-113%1-011%2-09%2-19%0-08%0-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-011%1-011%2-02-010%2-09%2-12-110%2-19%0-00-08%0-08%0-10-1—0-18%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 78%73% | 73% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%74% | 74% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75%74% | 74% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73%73% | 73% |
| 1 – Estoril win | 52%47% · Elo 38% | 47%· Elo 38% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52%52% | 52% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51%51% | 51% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 49%53% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49%49% | 49% |
| Both teams to score: no | 48%48% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27%27% | 27% |
| X – draw | 26%26% · Elo 29% | 26%· Elo 29% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25%26% | 26% |
| 2 – Moreirense win | 23%27% · Elo 33% | 27%· Elo 33% |
Attack vs defence
Estoril attack vs Moreirense defenceattack1492defence1440+52 pts to the attack
Moreirense attack vs Estoril defenceattack1409defence1431−22 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 8.4 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.559%59%
8.546%46%
9.534%31%
10.523%21%
Each team on its own
Estorilwe expect 5.0, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 55%
Moreirensewe expect 3.5, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 45%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 57%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 43%
We expect 24.8 in this match, 25.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.24.550%56%
25.543%50%
26.537%42%
27.531%36%
Each team on its own
Estorilwe expect 11.7, league average 12.8 · chance of over 12.5: 40%
Moreirensewe expect 13.0, league average 12.7 · chance of over 12.5: 52%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 58%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 42%
We expect 2.4 in this match, 2.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.568%78%
2.542%51%
3.522%31%
4.59%18%
Each team on its own
Estorilwe expect 1.2, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 32%
Moreirensewe expect 1.1, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 31%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Estoril16 matches without a winat home: 9Went on 74%League 61%Model 49%Record 31
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Estoril score only 0.6 goals per game
- Estoril: no win in 16 matches
- Estoril: only 3 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 11 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Estoril: 15 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
- Moreirense: 16 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4:12 | 2 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Estoril vs Moreirense?
Estoril are the favourites. Chances: Estoril win 52%, draw 26%, Moreirense win 23%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Estoril vs Moreirense?
Expected goals: 2.6 (Estoril 1.6, Moreirense 1.0). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 49%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Moreirense?
The chance that both teams score is 52%.
When is Estoril vs Moreirense?
The Liga Portugal match kicks off 25 October 2026, 15:30 (UK time).