Liga PortugalMatchday 9
Guimaraes vs Maritimo: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 9d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS47%49%O2.546%47%|exp. goals 1.6 : 0.9
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Maritimo1:2GuimaraesW
- Guimaraes1:0MaritimoW
- Maritimo0:1GuimaraesW
- Guimaraes2:1MaritimoW
- Maritimo0:0GuimaraesD
Guimaraes's record: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses1.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.1league 9.3under 9.5: 57%Expected corners: 9.1 in this match, 9.3 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.7league 4.8over 4.5: 50%Expected yellow cards: 4.7 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.7 : 0.8total 2.5Attack/defence1.6 : 0.9total 2.5
Guimaraes : MaritimoMost likely scores
Market1-013%1-112%2-012%2-110%0-09%0-1—Attack/defence1-012%1-112%2-010%2-110%0-08%0-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-01-013%1-012%1-11-112%1-112%2-02-012%2-010%2-12-110%2-110%0-00-09%0-08%0-10-1—0-17%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 82%79% | 79% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 76%75% | 75% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%74% | 74% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72%72% | 72% |
| 1 – Guimaraes win | 57%53% · Elo 60% | 53%· Elo 60% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54%53% | 53% |
| Both teams to score: no | 53%51% | 51% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47%49% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46%47% | 47% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 43%47% | 47% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28%28% | 28% |
| X – draw | 25%26% · Elo 24% | 26%· Elo 24% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24%25% | 25% |
| 2 – Maritimo win | 18%21% · Elo 17% | 21%· Elo 17% |
Attack vs defence
Guimaraes attack vs Maritimo defenceattack1493defence1412+81 pts to the attack
Maritimo attack vs Guimaraes defenceattack1415defence1528−113 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 58%close to the league averageunderover 42%
We expect 8.1 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.555%59%
8.542%46%
9.530%31%
10.520%21%
Each team on its own
Guimaraeswe expect 4.8, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 52%
Maritimowe expect 3.2, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 40%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 60%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 40%
We expect 24.3 in this match, 25.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.24.546%56%
25.540%50%
26.534%42%
27.528%36%
Each team on its own
Guimaraeswe expect 12.2, league average 12.8 · chance of over 12.5: 45%
Maritimowe expect 11.9, league average 12.7 · chance of over 12.5: 41%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 56%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 44%
We expect 2.4 in this match, 2.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.569%78%
2.544%51%
3.523%31%
4.510%18%
Each team on its own
Guimaraeswe expect 1.3, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 37%
Maritimowe expect 1.1, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 28%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Guimaraes6 matches in a row under 2.5 goals at homeoverall: 2Went on 53%League 45%Model 54%Record 16
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Guimaraes: only 2 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Guimaraes score only 0.5 goals per game
- Guimaraes: only 5 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 15 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Maritimo: newly promoted
- Guimaraes: 12 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Maritimo: 13 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:14 | 8 |
| 15 | Guimaraes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5:10 | 5 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Guimaraes vs Maritimo?
Guimaraes are the favourites. Chances: Guimaraes win 57%, draw 25%, Maritimo win 18%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Guimaraes vs Maritimo?
Expected goals: 2.5 (Guimaraes 1.7, Maritimo 0.8). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 46%. Most likely score: 1-0.
Will both teams score in Guimaraes vs Maritimo?
The chance that both teams score is 47%.
When is Guimaraes vs Maritimo?
The Liga Portugal match kicks off 23 October 2026, 20:45 (UK time).