Challenge LeagueMatchday 11
Aarau vs Etoile Carouge: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS60%O2.560%|exp. goals 1.9 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Etoile Carouge3:0AarauL
- Aarau1:3Etoile CarougeL
- Etoile Carouge0:3AarauW
- Aarau2:1Etoile CarougeW
- Etoile Carouge1:3AarauW
Aarau's record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses3.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.1league 9.2under 9.5: 57%Expected corners: 9.1 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.3league 4.4under 4.5: 57%Expected yellow cards: 4.3 in this match, 4.4 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 18%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.9 : 1.2total 3.0Attack/defence1.9 : 1.2total 3.1
Aarau : Etoile CarougeMost likely scores
Model1-112%2-110%2-08%1-08%0-06%3-1—1-2—Attack/defence1-111%2-110%2-08%1-08%0-0—3-16%1-26%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-112%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%2-02-08%2-08%1-01-08%1-08%0-00-06%0-0—3-13-1—3-16%1-21-2—1-26%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 78%77% | 77% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%77% | 77% |
| 1 – Aarau win | 52%54% · Elo 56% | 54%· Elo 56% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 48%46% | 46% |
| X – draw | 25%23% · Elo 24% | 23%· Elo 24% |
| 2 – Etoile Carouge win | 23%23% · Elo 20% | 23%· Elo 20% |
Attack vs defence
Aarau attack vs Etoile Carouge defenceattack1591defence1509+82 pts to the attack
Etoile Carouge attack vs Aarau defenceattack1438defence1516−78 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 52%close to the league averageunder 48%over
We expect 8.8 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.565%64%
8.552%52%
9.539%42%
10.528%32%
Each team on its own
Aarauwe expect 4.8, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 52%
Etoile Carougewe expect 4.0, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 37%
Foulsleague average
Under 24.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 23.8 in this match, 24.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.23.550%52%
24.543%46%
25.537%40%
26.531%32%
Each team on its own
Aarauwe expect 11.8, league average 12.3 · chance of over 12.5: 40%
Etoile Carougewe expect 11.9, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 41%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 2.6 in this match, 2.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.573%72%
2.548%44%
3.526%28%
4.512%18%
Each team on its own
Aarauwe expect 1.5, league average 1.3 · chance of over 1.5: 45%
Etoile Carougewe expect 1.0, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 28%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Aarau9 matches in a row with BTTSat home: 7Went on 57%League 54%Record 18
- Aarau8 matches in a row over 2.5 goalsat home: 4Went on 58%League 60%Record 17
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Aarau: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Aarau: 15 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
- Etoile Carouge: 15 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aarau | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15:18 | 12 |
| 9 | Etoile Carouge | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8:14 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Aarau vs Etoile Carouge?
Aarau are the favourites. Chances: Aarau win 52%, draw 25%, Etoile Carouge win 23%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Aarau vs Etoile Carouge?
Expected goals: 3.0 (Aarau 1.9, Etoile Carouge 1.2). Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Aarau vs Etoile Carouge?
The Challenge League match kicks off 24 October 2026, 17:00 (UK time).