Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 19hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS58%O2.563%60%|exp. goals 2.0 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- New England Revolution2:1Philadelphia UnionL
- Philadelphia Union1:0New England RevolutionW
- New England Revolution0:2Philadelphia UnionW
- Philadelphia Union5:1New England RevolutionW
- New England Revolution0:3Philadelphia UnionW
Philadelphia Union's record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.2league 10.0under 10.5: 56%Expected corners: 10.2 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.1league 4.1under 4.5: 62%Expected yellow cards: 4.1 in this match, 4.1 on average in the league.In this league 60% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 16%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model2.1 : 1.2total 3.2Attack/defence2.0 : 1.1total 3.1
Philadelphia Union : New England RevolutionMost likely scores
Model1-110%2-110%2-08%1-08%3-17%3-0—Attack/defence1-110%2-110%2-09%1-09%3-17%3-06%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-110%1-110%2-12-110%2-110%2-02-08%2-09%1-01-08%1-09%3-13-17%3-17%3-03-0—3-06%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84%82% | 82% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 80%81% | 81% |
| 12 – no draw | 78%78% | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63%60% | 60% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 60%62% | 62% |
| 1 – Philadelphia Union win | 57%59% · Elo 59% | 59%· Elo 59% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 43%41% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40%38% | 38% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37%40% | 40% |
| X – draw | 22%22% · Elo 23% | 22%· Elo 23% |
| 2 – New England Revolution win | 21%19% · Elo 18% | 19%· Elo 18% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16%18% | 18% |
Attack vs defence
Philadelphia Union attack vs New England Revolution defenceattack1598defence1499+99 pts to the attack
New England Revolution attack vs Philadelphia Union defenceattack1489defence1579−90 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%
We expect 9.5 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.559%55%
9.547%44%
10.535%33%
11.525%25%
Each team on its own
Philadelphia Unionwe expect 5.5, league average 5.1 · chance of over 5.5: 47%
New England Revolutionwe expect 4.1, league average 4.1 · chance of over 4.5: 39%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 20.6 in this match, 21.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.549%53%
21.541%46%
22.535%40%
23.528%35%
Each team on its own
Philadelphia Unionwe expect 11.8, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 62%
New England Revolutionwe expect 8.7, league average 10.5 · chance of over 10.5: 28%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 3.3 in this match, 3.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.563%59%
3.541%39%
4.523%20%
5.512%11%
Each team on its own
Philadelphia Unionwe expect 1.7, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 50%
New England Revolutionwe expect 1.6, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 46%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Philadelphia Union score 3.1 goals per game
- New England Revolution: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Philadelphia Union: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Philadelphia Union: 7 wins in a row
- Philadelphia Union: 26 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 19 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Philadelphia Union: 7 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
- New England Revolution: 7 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | New England Revolution | 28 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 45:39 | 46 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 56:45 | 42 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution?
Philadelphia Union are the favourites. Chances: Philadelphia Union win 57%, draw 22%, New England Revolution win 21%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution?
Expected goals: 3.2 (Philadelphia Union 2.1, New England Revolution 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 63%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution?
The MLS match kicks off 25 October 2026, 00:30 (UK time).