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WTA 125 QuerétaroSemifinalclaybest of three sets

Maria vs Ferro 2:1: result and our tips

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Tatjana MariaWTA #66Elo 1804clay 1706
2:1final7:5 3:6 6:1
Fiona FerroWTA #96Elo 1746clay 1758

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 22.5Lost57%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Under 22.5 games in recent matches: Maria 16 of 20, Ferro 15 of 20 (tour average 63%)

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost61%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    No third set in recent matches: Maria 16 of 20, Ferro 14 of 20 (tour average 67%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Tatjana Maria51%
Fiona Ferro49%

Elo: T. Maria 43% · F. Ferro 57%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 T. Maria31%
2:1 T. Maria20%
2:1 F. Ferro19%
2:0 F. Ferro30%

First set

Tatjana Maria50%
Fiona Ferro50%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.0 · 49%market (no margin): 50%

The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.566%34%59%
19.559%42%52%
20.552%48%45%
21.549%51%41%
22.544%57%37%
23.539%61%33%
24.536%64%31%

Sample: 1,386 matches

Games handicap

T. Maria −0.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 20%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 21.0in · 28 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Tatjana MariaFiona Ferro
0Aces2
2Double faults3
70%First serves in85%
50%First-serve points won43%
46%Second-serve points won39%
9/13Break points converted7/13
7/14Service games held5/14
49%Service points won43%
58%Return points won51%
96Total points won85

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

T. MariaTourF. Ferro
Service points won59%56%55%
Return points won44%44%48%
Service games held69%63%64%
Breaks of serve37%37%46%
Aces per service game0.410.10
Double faults per game0.240.19
Sets with a tie-break10%7%
Tie-breaks won7/132/8
Wins in straight sets88%64%
Matches in the sample5952

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Tatjana Maria

Fiona Ferro

Elo over the last year

Tatjana MariaFiona Ferro

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

T. MariaF. Ferro
Hard court6–1529%10–953%
Clay10–759%23–972%
Grass16–576%0–10%

Head to head

T. Maria 1–0 F. Ferro

  • 20/08/23Winner: T. Maria6:1 6:2

Road through the tournament

Tatjana Maria

Fiona Ferro

Upcoming matches

See also