Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 32
Vitoria vs Athletico-PR: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS53%55%O2.547%51%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Athletico-PR3:1VitoriaL
- Athletico-PR1:2VitoriaW
- Vitoria0:1Athletico-PRL
- Vitoria1:2Athletico-PRL
- Athletico-PR4:0VitoriaL
Vitoria's record: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.5league 10.4under 10.5: 52%Expected corners: 10.5 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.7league 4.7under 4.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 4.7 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 22%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 1.3total 2.6Attack/defence1.5 : 1.2total 2.7
Vitoria : Athletico-PRMost likely scores
Market1-114%1-09%0-19%0-09%2-18%1-2—2-0—Attack/defence1-112%1-09%0-18%0-0—2-19%1-27%2-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-112%1-01-09%1-09%0-10-19%0-18%0-00-09%0-0—2-12-18%2-19%1-21-2—1-27%2-02-0—2-07%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74%75% | 75% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 74%71% | 71% |
| 12 – no draw | 72%74% | 74% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 65%69% | 69% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 63%57% | 57% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53%49% | 49% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53%55% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47%51% | 51% |
| Both teams to score: no | 47%45% | 45% |
| 1 – Vitoria win | 37%43% · Elo 34% | 43%· Elo 34% |
| 2 – Athletico-PR win | 35%31% · Elo 37% | 31%· Elo 37% |
| X – draw | 28%26% · Elo 29% | 26%· Elo 29% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26%25% | 25% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26%29% | 29% |
Attack vs defence
Vitoria attack vs Athletico-PR defenceattack1418defence1466−48 pts to the attack
Athletico-PR attack vs Vitoria defenceattack1513defence1463+50 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 57%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 43%over
We expect 10.3 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.569%55%
9.557%43%
10.546%32%
11.535%26%
Each team on its own
Vitoriawe expect 5.8, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 51%
Athletico-PRwe expect 5.1, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 72%
Foulsleague average
Under 24.5 · 55%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 45%
We expect 24.0 in this match, 25.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.23.551%59%
24.545%51%
25.538%45%
26.532%40%
Each team on its own
Vitoriawe expect 11.2, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 34%
Athletico-PRwe expect 12.7, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 50%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 52%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 48%
We expect 2.6 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.573%78%
2.548%55%
3.527%34%
4.513%20%
Each team on its own
Vitoriawe expect 1.3, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 37%
Athletico-PRwe expect 1.2, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 35%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Athletico-PR: newly promoted
- Vitoria: 5 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Athletico-PR: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Athletico-PR | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 49:35 | 53 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 33:44 | 36 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Vitoria vs Athletico-PR?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Vitoria win 37%, draw 28%, Athletico-PR win 35%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Vitoria vs Athletico-PR?
Expected goals: 2.6 (Vitoria 1.3, Athletico-PR 1.3). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 47%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Athletico-PR?
The chance that both teams score is 53%.
When is Vitoria vs Athletico-PR?
The Brasileiro Serie A match kicks off 24 October 2026, 20:30 (UK time).