ChampionshipMatchday 12
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 9d 9hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS58%O2.554%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.5
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Bolton0:2MiddlesbroughL
- Middlesbrough2:0BoltonL
- Middlesbrough2:0BoltonL
- Bolton0:3MiddlesbroughL
- Bolton1:2MiddlesbroughL
Bolton's record: 0 wins, 0 draws, 5 losses2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.5league 10.4under 10.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.5 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.6league 3.8under 3.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 3.6 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.3 : 1.6total 2.9Attack/defence1.4 : 1.5total 2.8
Bolton : MiddlesbroughMost likely scores
Model1-112%1-29%0-18%2-17%1-0—0-27%Attack/defence1-112%1-29%0-18%2-18%1-08%0-26%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%1-21-29%1-29%0-10-18%0-18%2-12-17%2-18%1-01-0—1-08%0-20-27%0-26%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 12 – no draw | 75%74% | 74% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 71%65% | 65% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 55%61% | 61% |
| 2 – Middlesbrough win | 45%40% · Elo 56% | 40%· Elo 56% |
| 1 – Bolton win | 29%35% · Elo 20% | 35%· Elo 20% |
| X – draw | 26%26% · Elo 24% | 26%· Elo 24% |
Attack vs defence
Bolton attack vs Middlesbrough defenceattack1516defence1558−42 pts to the attack
Middlesbrough attack vs Bolton defenceattack1592defence1469+123 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 49%over
We expect 8.8 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.564%56%
8.551%40%
9.538%31%
10.527%20%
Each team on its own
Boltonwe expect 4.7, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 49%
Middlesbroughwe expect 4.4, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 63%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 61%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 39%
We expect 19.4 in this match, 20.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.547%56%
20.539%46%
21.532%37%
22.526%33%
Each team on its own
Boltonwe expect 9.2, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 44%
Middlesbroughwe expect 10.0, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 42%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 72%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 28%over
We expect 5.0 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.587%66%
3.572%50%
4.555%32%
5.538%19%
Each team on its own
Boltonwe expect 1.6, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 48%
Middlesbroughwe expect 3.4, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 84%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Middlesbrough: unbeaten in 8 matches
- Bolton: newly promoted
- Bolton: 6 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
- Middlesbrough: 6 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 20:14 | 21 |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 15:18 | 13 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
Middlesbrough are the favourites. Chances: Bolton win 29%, draw 26%, Middlesbrough win 45%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
Expected goals: 2.9 (Bolton 1.3, Middlesbrough 1.6). Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
The Championship match kicks off 23 October 2026, 20:00 (UK time).