ChampionshipMatchday 12

Portsmouth vs Millwall: prediction, tips and stats

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Portsmouth
0-22-00-02-20-1
1.3:1.2Pre-match
Millwall
0-11-02-22-21-3

Our tips

Tip in 10d 8h

For matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.

The match in numbers

1X2EloPortsmouth152233%31%Draw29%28%Millwall162238%41%
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS51%O2.546%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Millwall1:3PortsmouthW
  2. Portsmouth3:1MillwallW
  3. Millwall2:1PortsmouthL
  4. Portsmouth0:1MillwallL
  5. Portsmouth0:1MillwallL
Portsmouth's record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.8league 10.4over 10.5: 51%Expected corners: 10.8 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end over 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 3.8under 3.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.
Refereeawaiting appointment

Prediction: result and goals

Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.2 : 1.3total 2.4Attack/defence1.3 : 1.2total 2.5
Portsmouth : Millwall
Most likely scores
Model1-114%0-111%1-010%0-010%2-1—1-28%Attack/defence1-113%0-110%1-010%0-09%2-18%1-28%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-114%1-113%0-10-111%0-110%1-01-010%1-010%0-00-010%0-09%2-12-1—2-18%1-21-28%1-28%
OutcomeModelAttack/defence
12 – no draw71%72%72%
X2 – away team avoid defeat67%63%63%
1X – home team avoid defeat62%65%65%
2 – Millwall win38%35% · Elo 41%35%· Elo 41%
1 – Portsmouth win33%37% · Elo 31%37%· Elo 31%
X – draw29%28% · Elo 28%28%· Elo 28%
Attack vs defence
Portsmouth attack vs Millwall defenceattack1467defence1544−77 pts to the attack
Millwall attack vs Portsmouth defenceattack1520defence1496+24 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 63%close to the league averageunderover 37%
We expect 7.8 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.551%56%
8.537%40%
9.526%31%
10.517%20%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Portsmouthwe expect 4.1, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 39%
Millwallwe expect 3.4, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 44%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 57%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 43%over
We expect 21.7 in this match, 20.3 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
19.564%56%
20.557%46%
21.550%37%
22.543%33%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Portsmouthwe expect 10.1, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 54%
Millwallwe expect 11.9, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 62%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 59%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 41%over
We expect 4.2 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.578%66%
3.559%50%
4.540%32%
5.525%19%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Portsmouthwe expect 1.6, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 47%
Millwallwe expect 2.6, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 71%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

League form

Portsmouth

Millwall

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10Millwall1042416:1614
20Portsmouth82249:118
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Portsmouth vs Millwall?

It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Portsmouth win 33%, draw 29%, Millwall win 38%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.

How many goals will there be in Portsmouth vs Millwall?

Expected goals: 2.4 (Portsmouth 1.2, Millwall 1.3). Most likely score: 1-1.

When is Portsmouth vs Millwall?

The Championship match kicks off 24 October 2026, 12:30 (UK time).

See also