Ligue 1Matchday 8
Monaco vs Lille: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS59%53%O2.556%49%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Monaco0:1LilleL
- Lille1:0MonacoL
- Lille2:1MonacoL
- Monaco0:0LilleD
- Monaco1:0LilleW
Monaco's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses1.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.5league 9.6under 9.5: 53%Expected corners: 9.5 in this match, 9.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.6league 3.6under 3.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 3.6 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.6 : 1.3total 2.9Attack/defence1.4 : 1.2total 2.6
Monaco : LilleMost likely scores
Market1-112%1-08%2-19%0-1—0-0—1-27%2-07%Attack/defence1-113%1-010%2-19%0-18%0-08%1-27%2-0—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-113%1-01-08%1-010%2-12-19%2-19%0-10-1—0-18%0-00-0—0-08%1-21-27%1-27%2-02-07%2-0—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%74% | 74% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%73% | 73% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 71%69% | 69% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 67%73% | 73% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59%53% | 53% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 57%58% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56%49% | 49% |
| 1 – Monaco win | 44%42% · Elo 45% | 42%· Elo 45% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44%51% | 51% |
| Both teams to score: no | 41%47% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33%27% | 27% |
| 2 – Lille win | 30%31% · Elo 28% | 31%· Elo 28% |
| X – draw | 27%27% · Elo 27% | 27%· Elo 27% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20%26% | 26% |
Attack vs defence
Monaco attack vs Lille defenceattack1576defence1609−33 pts to the attack
Lille attack vs Monaco defenceattack1509defence1522−13 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 50%close to the league averageunder 50%over
We expect 8.7 in this match, 8.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.563%60%
8.550%49%
9.538%38%
10.527%28%
Each team on its own
Monacowe expect 4.4, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 44%
Lillewe expect 4.4, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 62%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 21.5 in this match, 21.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.555%53%
21.548%47%
22.541%41%
23.534%36%
Each team on its own
Monacowe expect 11.1, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 54%
Lillewe expect 10.4, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 46%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 58%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 42%over
We expect 4.1 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.577%63%
3.558%43%
4.539%26%
5.524%14%
Each team on its own
Monacowe expect 2.2, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 64%
Lillewe expect 2.0, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 58%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Lille: only 2 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Monaco: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Lille: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10:5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9:4 | 13 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Monaco vs Lille?
Monaco are the favourites. Chances: Monaco win 44%, draw 27%, Lille win 30%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Monaco vs Lille?
Expected goals: 2.9 (Monaco 1.6, Lille 1.3). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 56%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Lille?
The chance that both teams score is 59%.
When is Monaco vs Lille?
The Ligue 1 match kicks off 25 October 2026, 14:00 (UK time).