BundesligaMatchday 7
Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS70%68%O2.569%68%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.9
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Hoffenheim1:0LeverkusenW
- Leverkusen1:2HoffenheimW
- Leverkusen3:1HoffenheimL
- Hoffenheim1:4LeverkusenL
- Leverkusen2:1HoffenheimL
Hoffenheim's record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses3.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.1league 9.9over 9.5: 55%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 3.6over 3.5: 50%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.7 : 1.9total 3.6Attack/defence1.6 : 1.9total 3.5
Hoffenheim : LeverkusenMost likely scores
Market1-110%1-28%2-18%2-27%0-1—1-35%Attack/defence1-110%1-29%2-18%2-27%0-15%1-35%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-110%1-110%1-21-28%1-29%2-12-18%2-18%2-22-27%2-27%0-10-1—0-15%1-31-35%1-35%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88%86% | 86% |
| 12 – no draw | 76%77% | 77% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 70%68% | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69%68% | 68% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 65%66% | 66% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 59%57% | 57% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 52%54% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48%46% | 46% |
| 2 – Leverkusen win | 41%43% · Elo 52% | 43%· Elo 52% |
| 1 – Hoffenheim win | 35%34% · Elo 22% | 34%· Elo 22% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31%32% | 32% |
| Both teams to score: no | 30%32% | 32% |
| X – draw | 24%23% · Elo 26% | 23%· Elo 26% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12%14% | 14% |
Attack vs defence
Hoffenheim attack vs Leverkusen defenceattack1529defence1570−41 pts to the attack
Leverkusen attack vs Hoffenheim defenceattack1623defence1467+156 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 47%over
We expect 9.9 in this match, 9.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.565%61%
9.553%48%
10.541%36%
11.530%28%
Each team on its own
Hoffenheimwe expect 5.5, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 47%
Leverkusenwe expect 4.6, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 49%
Foulsleague average
Over 19.5 · 51%close to the league averageunder 49%over
We expect 20.0 in this match, 19.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.559%59%
19.551%53%
20.544%46%
21.537%39%
Each team on its own
Hoffenheimwe expect 11.2, league average 9.9 · chance of over 9.5: 66%
Leverkusenwe expect 8.8, league average 10.0 · chance of over 9.5: 39%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 63%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 37%
We expect 3.1 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.559%66%
3.537%46%
4.520%30%
5.510%16%
Each team on its own
Hoffenheimwe expect 1.5, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 45%
Leverkusenwe expect 1.5, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 42%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Hoffenheim concede 2.2 goals per game
- Leverkusen score 2.3 goals per game
- Hoffenheim: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Leverkusen: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Hoffenheim: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Leverkusen: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14:8 | 10 |
| 17 | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9:13 | 3 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Hoffenheim win 35%, draw 24%, Leverkusen win 41%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen?
Expected goals: 3.6 (Hoffenheim 1.7, Leverkusen 1.9). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 69%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen?
The chance that both teams score is 70%.
When is Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen?
The Bundesliga match kicks off 25 October 2026, 14:30 (UK time).